Monday, March 16, 2009

Tournament Time!

Who got burned? Who got the sweet seeds? The CEO said it best - we all got burned.

What that means is that there is actually some parity going into the NCAA Tournament, and earlier projections of Jutdog sweeping this contest can now be retracted.

The Top 6 (Bottom 6 coming later)

Jutdog goes into the tournament with a 28 point lead but can he hang on? His best four teams (Louisville, Wake Forest, Ohio State, Utah) are all in the top half of the Midwest bracket, meaning no more than 2 Sweet 16 teams for Jut, and only one Elite 8 at most. SF Austin, Cornell and Temple all drew tough match ups and won't last long although Temple might give Arizona State a run if not an upset. In the NIT, Rhode Island got a good draw but Weber St faces top seed San Diego State for a quick defeat.

Akaoni can complain about 3 of his 5 teams being in the same bracket as well, one that will likely see UCONN emerge into the Elite 8 so a tough row for Washington, Purdue, and Texas A&M. Dayton could give West Virginia fits, and Akaoni needs Michigan to upset Clemson and Oklahoma in the South. Prospects are dim for Akaoni. However he does have three teams in the NIT (Florida, New Mexico, South Carolina) with Florida a clear favorite to make it far.

Babblemur only got four teams in, but they are good teams with pretty good seedings. Michigan State & West Virginia will have some tough games to get to the Sweet 16 but face each other if they do. Arizona State & Syracuse will face off in the second round assuming they beat up Jut's teams in the first. Either can hold their own against Oklahoma. Overall weak prospects for Babs given that only 3 teams can reach the Sweet 16, and might not make it much further. However with a league leading 4 teams in the NIT (San Diego St, Tulsa, Creighton, Jacksonville) he could get an edge with the bonus points.

Boaris got himself back on track with a good week and four teams in the NCAA. Top seed Pitt is a Final Four favorite in the East, Oklahoma a 2 seed in the South will have to fight their way to the Elite 8. Butler got a good draw against LSU and could face UNC in round 2. Miss St faces Washington and ought to be eliminated but they could win this one. Pitt & Oklahoma have the potential to catapult Boaris back into first place and contend for the championship. 3 NIT teams (Kentucky, Providence, V-Tech) might help.

Jaybird has a chance as long as North Carolina stays alive. UNC got a good draw and should easily handle LSU, Illinois, or Gonzaga should they match up, and Oklahoma might be all that stands between UNC and the Final Four. Marquette's recent decline will probably continue with an early out, if not against Utah St then Missouri. One round one win to count on is the North Dakota St-Kansas game, Jaybird will win even when he loses. Kansas will face tough competition to get out of that bracket alive. Kansas-West Virginia could be a great game to watch. Lets not forget Alabama State in the "play-in" game - if they win (2 points) they face Louisville. Could they...? Nah.

The CEO got six good teams into the Tournament, which gives him more room for more points but will any of them reach the Final Four? Duke & Villanova got good draws but will have to face off in the Sweet 16 if they both make it. VCU gets to wear down UCLA before Villanova (likely) takes them on. LSU got burned and not only face a scrappy Butler team in round one but take on North Carolina in round two if they beat Butler. Siena drew Ohio State, and even if they win they face Louisville. Northern Iowa drew Purdue as a 12 seed, and could surprise some people and wind up in the Sweet 16. The CEO has a shot if Duke or Villanova get to the Final Four and he gets some wins from Siena & UNI.

By the way, join the Babblemur Group on ESPN with your tournament predictions!

The Bottom Six

The Bottom Six have a much taller order to win it all, with Progress Media and Phunmunki starting 70 points down and last place HippieD over 130 points down. Are they out? Consider this - The NCAA Champion will likely finish with 78 points, the runner up will finish with 55. Making it to the Sweet 16 alone is worth 11 points (I'm including 2 points for each round assuming it is against another player's team). So do they have a chance?

Progress Media has six teams in but none of them are stellar. He will need a series of upsets to wrack up points: Utah State over Marquette is doable but Morgan St, E. Tenn St. and American have tough draws and little hope. Texas and Arizona are the best PM has, and Texas would face Duke in round 2 and Arizona has to fight past Utah and Wake to be competitive. Progress is done.

Phunmunki has seven teams in and several of them are certainly Sweet 16 material but Final Four? 4 seeds Gonzaga and Xavier will have to earn their way to the Elite 8 and at least one must make the Final Four to give Phun a shot. California & Maryland are both good teams but face off in round one with the winner taking on Memphis. If California or Maryland can take the West Phun will be competing for the top.

Gunz has 1 great team (Memphis) and 3 pretty good ones (Missouri, Minnesota, Boston College) and he needs all four in the Sweet 16. Memphis is favored and has a chip on their shoulder, Missouri is hot but will face Memphis in the regionals if they get past Marquette. Boston College could upset Michigan State in round 2 and run deep, Minnesota however will be lucky to beat Texas in the first round.

NotaTurtle needs UCLA & Illinois in the final four. UCLA has tough match ups against potentially Villanova and Duke. Illinois got a good draw if they can get past the Hilltoppers and take down Gonzaga. Northridge vs Memphis = upset? Cleveland St vs Wake Forest = blowout. Baylor and Miami should go far in the NIT.

Musashisan needs a miracle, and they don't have one. 9 seed Tennessee faces Pitt in round 2, 5 seed Florida St could fall to Pitt as well in round 3 if they get that far. Western Kentucky will be trying to repeat last year's amazing run (and could do it), and 7 seed Clemson could make it into the Elite 8 but it won't be easy. NIT teams Penn St and Wash St should fall fast.

HippieD is in the dubious position of having one of the best teams (UCONN) and the worst position (last place). UCONN could easily win the national championship, netting HippieD 78 points and still fall far short of first place. With only USC and Oklahoma St joining UCONN in the Big Dance, it isn't looking good. USC could make a good run, they are capable of beating both Boston College and Michigan St, and if they make it that far they could beat West Virginia or Kansas as well. Louisville? Doubt it. HippieD has the potential to win both the NCAA Tourney and the NIT Tourney and still lose.

By the way, join the Babblemur Group on ESPN with your tournament predictions!

24 comments:

akaoni said...

Bracket #2 is on the board. This one is the Akaoni wins it all bracket with my teams going all the way. This will likely challenge for the lowest scoring bracket, but I have ten right? So who cares if I submit a screwy one...

...I'll get down to the more serious ones after I analyze the matchups a bit more.

Anonymous said...

CBI Bracket Is Up: Teams include

- UWGB (Jutdog) Vs Vermont (Phun)
- Stanford
- Buffalo
- Nevada
- UTEP
- Northeastern
- Oregon St
- Richmond

http://www.gazellegroup.com/events/cbi/cbi09_bracket.pdf

~ Jut

Ron said...

My favorite bracket is the one in which all of Jut's teams lose. I let Louisville win the first round game though.

Anonymous said...

Who replaces Jut as your favorite then?

Ron said...

I updated the spreadsheet with the CBI and NIT games as well as the NCAA games.

Who replaces Jut? Good question. Here's the deal - if Louisville wins the national championship Jut wins. If they get knocked out either before the final four or in the semis, it is between Boaris (Pitt & Okl), Jaybird (UNC & Kansas), Babs (Syracuse & Mich St or West Virginia). CEO (Duke/Vill) doesn't have the fire power, nor does Akaoni (Wash/Purdue).

If UCONN wins it all, it is going to be a real crap shoot for first place!

Ron said...

By the way, in the NIT I am predicting San Diego St vs Tulsa and Creighton vs Florida in the Final Four, which should wind up giving me a 20 point boost or so...

Ron said...

OK I've been crunching the numbers and I am now convinced that if Louisville goes to the Final Four, Jutdog will likely have won, UNLESS he loses in the first final four game, PLUS San Diego State wins the NIT, PLUS Michigan State or West Virginia makes it to the Elite Eight AND Syracuse makes it to the Elite Eight = in which case I WILL WIN BY ONE POINT.

This does not take into consideration the CBI however, so if UWGB makes some noise there, its all over.

HOWEVER...

If Louisville loses before reaching the Final Four I think this could go to Boaris if Pitt wins it all, Jaybird if UNC wins it all, CEO if Duke or Nova wins it all, or Akaoni if Washington wins it all. However if I dominate the NIT and get Syracuse and one other in the Elite 8, I will still have a chance.

Ron said...

I should add that the above estimate assumes that Temple upsets Arizona State in the first round. If that doesn't happen, Jut could be a little weaker.

akaoni said...

Temple should never have made the tourney in the first place. I blame myself for razzing Jut about them...

Anonymous said...

Louisville doesn't need to go that far... Wake Forest can too.

Don't count on GB doing much in the CBI. Rather, I'd expect Rhode Island to cause much more damage in the NIT.

Also, this is interesting:

Jaybird North Carolina ACC 77 1
HippieD Connecticut BigEast 62 2
Notaturtle UCLA Pac10 57 3
Jutdog Louisville BigEast 84 4
Phunmunki Gonzaga WCC 58 5
The CEO Duke ACC 77 6
Musashisan Tennessee SEC 48 7
Akaoni Purdue Big10 62 8
ProgressMedia Texas Big12 48 9
Babblemur Michigan St Big10 67 10
Boaris Pittsburgh BigEast 69 11
Gunz Memphis CUSA 61 12
Gunz Notre Dame BigEast 33 13
Boaris Oklahoma Big12 65 14
Babblemur Arizona St Pac10 56 15
ProgressMedia Davidson Southern 33 16
Akaoni Florida SEC 37 17
Musashisan Georgetown BigEast 34 18
The CEO Villanova BigEast 52 19
Phunmunki Wisconsin Big10 38 20
Jutdog Wake Forest ACC 63 21
Notaturtle Miami ACC 31 22
HippieD USC Pac10 51 23
Jaybird Marquette BigEast 40 24
Jaybird Kansas Big12 62 25
HippieD UNLV MWC 37 26
Notaturtle Baylor Big12 35 27
Jutdog Ohio St Big10 50 28
Phunmunki Xavier Atl 10 64 29
The CEO Siena MAAC 44 30
Musashisan Clemson ACC 45 31
Akaoni Texas A&M Big12 46 32
ProgressMedia St Marys WCC 34 33
Babblemur Syracuse BigEast 54 34
Boaris Kentucky SEC 36 35
Gunz Southern Illinois MVC 18 36
Gunz Boston College ACC 42 37
Boaris Virginia Tech ACC 34 38
Babblemur Creighton MVC 50 39
ProgressMedia Arizona Pac10 44 40
Akaoni Washington Pac10 70 41
Musashisan Iowa Big10 19 42
The CEO LSU SEC 61 43
Phunmunki BYU MWC 44 44
Jutdog Temple Atl 10 50 45
Notaturtle Kent State MAC 24 46
HippieD George Mason Colonial 30 47
Jaybird Alabama SEC 32 48
Jaybird UAB CUSA 28 49
HippieD Murray State OVC 17 50
Notaturtle Cleveland St Horizon 40 51
Jutdog San Diego WCC 16 52
Phunmunki Nevada WAC 26 53
The CEO VCU Colonial 52 54
Musashisan Washington State Pac10 28 55
Akaoni New Mexico MWC 43 56
ProgressMedia Vanderbilt SEC 37 57
Babblemur West Virginia BigEast 51 58
Boaris Stanford Pac10 32 59
Gunz Arkansas SEC 26 60

Anonymous said...

that looks dumb. i'll assemble a post - the reg season best and worst, etc

akaoni said...

I invited my friend Scott to throw in a couple of entries into ESPN group. He has participated a few times in the past, so I figured the more the merrier...

Anonymous said...

Absolutely! We can have like 10,000 entries in the group so there is plenty of room.

akaoni said...

So when's the deadline for submitting brackets to ESPN?

McGrumps said...

Tip-off on Thursday. Play-in game not included.

Anonymous said...

MORE GAMES WITH CHANCES TO WIN:

THE CIT TOURNEY

Includes:

Drake, Kent St, Belmont, Austin Peay, Old Dominion

http://www.collegesports-fans.com/ncaa-tournament/cit-basketball-tournament.html

just another opportunity to scrap some points up.

~ jut

akaoni said...

I have no idea what this CIT tourney is. I declare it null and void! Drake be damned!

Anonymous said...

yeah none are mine so screw it

Anonymous said...

Common, its the all-prestigious College Insider Tourney, featuring the major mid majors that weren't major enough to crack the NCAA, NIT, or CBI.

None of my teams either, and winning is worth nothing, but wins are worth 1 pt, and plus 2 vs another team.

You have to like getting a team into the CBI final - best of three means it may be worth a few extra.

Anonymous said...

Well I see Kent State just got knocked out of the NCAA, I mean NIT, I mean CBI, I mean CIT. By Oakland.

That is just a low blow. Salt in the wound. Go UCLA!

akaoni said...

Screw it! I've changed my mind, I need every point I can get. CIT ON!

Anonymous said...

HippieD got spanked in the NIT - three losses.

VERY satisfying to beat Weber State. I begin my long march to the NIT CROWN and the 20 or so points that come with it.

I'M GOING TO CATCH YOU JUTDOG!

Anonymous said...

OK.. number 3

Anonymous said...

I'm two points closer today... Gonna getcha!