Thursday, February 26, 2009

Mid Major Crunch Time

Horizon Review

Butler. Butler. Butler. Are there other teams in the conf? Butler. If crazy things happen, and Butler (Boaris) loses either of their last 2 games - both at home - AND UWGB (Jutdog) wins on the road at Wright St, the we have a tie for the reg season.

But, likely GB ends tied for 2nd with Cleveland St. And neither receive an at large.

I don't think anyone can say Butler walks through the conf tourney. They've played loads of close conf games this year, and dropped 3 games to different teams. Fortunately, they don't need to win the conf tourney, and are in for sure.

NCAA hopes - At least 1. Maybe 2 if Butler falls in the conf tourney.


MAAC Review

Amazingly, two MAAC teams are borderline. Sienna should be in even with a poor conf tourney finish, with a 62 Sagarin, 23-7 record, 24 RPI, and top 65 SOS. They might lose their next game, played at Niagara, who should finish 24-7. They currently are at 74 Sagarin and 63 RPI. If Niagara can knock Sienna at home, along with a strong conf tourney finale of Niagara vs Sienna, the MAAC could produce two teams in the NCAAs.



Mizz Valley Review

Creighton and Northern Iowa are battling for conf reg season champs. Creighton and Illinois St are battling for a spot in the NCAA tourney. Creighton finishes the season with a battle at home against Ill St.

Creighton will finish the reg season with at least 24 wins, 45 RPI, and 54 Sagarin. I suspect they are in with at least one win in the conf tourney.

Northern Iowa needs to win the conf tourney.

Illinois St will probably also need to win the conf tourney, finishing the reg season with 22 or 23 wins, a 73 Sagarin, a 67 RPI, and weak schedule. This is another of those "make it to the finale of the conf reg season" and they have a chance. A win at Creighton finishing the reg season could greatly help.

NCAA - 1 team.


CUSA Review

Obviously Memphis is in, with a potential 1 seed. Who else?

- UAB (Jaybird) - They should finish 22-9 reg season, with a Sagarin of 41, RPI of 38, and SOS of 71. Unless they blow 2+ games against lesser teams, they're in, and CUSA actually has 2 teams.

- Tulsa, Houston, and UTEP should each be NIT bound, unless Houston can win the rest of their games, including home vs Memphis.


Colonial Review

While the CEO swears by the CAA, I don't think the committee will. They will only send 1 team, regardless of conf tourney finish. Here's why:

VCU: should finish 21-9, with lowly ratings, including 64 RPI, 117 SOS, and 78 Sagarin.

George Mason: should finish 20-9, with slightly better ratings including 54 RPI, 109 SOS, but only 88 Sagarin.

While Northeastern and Old Dominion are solid mid major teams, they aren't worth considering for the NCAA.

The only way two teams go is if George Mason and VCU face off in the final conf tourney game. Even then, it depends on the Providences, Penn States, etc.


Mountain West Review

Can 5 teams really make it from the Mountain West? Utah is shaping up to win the reg season, although both BYU and New Mexico are in striking distance. In fact, a 3-way tie is in my guess is just as probable as an outright Utah win.

Two teams are certainly in: Utah (Jutdog) (20-7, 11-2 conf, 25 Sagarin, 9 RPI, 20 SOS) and BYU (munki) (21-6, 9-4 conf, 23 Sagarin & RPI, 49 SOS).

So what about the others:

- New Mexico (Akaoni): 64 Sagarin, 70 RPI, and 75 SOS. They'll need to finish the season with a good conf tourney, and a win in their upcoming home game vs Utah.

San Diego St (Babs): Should finish the year with 3 wins, but a tough home game vs UNLV could change that. 51 Sagarin, 53 RPI, 60 SOS. They also better not lose the opening round of the conf tourney.

UNLV (HippieD): At one point, they were a top 35 team. Now? They'll finish just above .500 in conf play. Sagarin 52, RPI 50, SOS 68. We'll say it again, They also better not lose the opening round of the conf tourney.

Overall, I say barring a huge upset in the tourney, 3 teams are guaranteed from the MWC, and it depends on how they finish in the conf tourney. Upsets over Utah and BYU could produce 4 NCAA teams.


Atlantic 10 Review:

4-way contention right now:

- Xavier (10-3) - Phunmuni: At St Joes & Richmond, Dayton home. They should finish 13-3

-Temple (9-3) - Jutdog: 3 very winnable games, with a tough road battle at Dayton. I predict a 13-3 first place tie.

- Rhode Island (10-4) - Jutdog: Only two games left, one tough game on the road at Duquesne. Will finish either 11-5 or 12-4.

- Dayton (9-4)- Akaoni: Finishes the conf season with a gauntlet, first losing at Rhode Island, then having to face both Temple (hm) and Xavier (away). Dayton finishes 10-6.

Can 3 teams make it? Xavier is a certain. Temple has the best resume of the remaining teams, with a 53 SOS, 37 RPI, and 57 Sagarin. Rhode Island looks borderline, but needs a VERY strong finish. They post a top 60 RPI and a 61 Sagarin, but have only a 119 SOS.

Dayton has a great RPI (35) and good record, but a SOS at 116 (171 at one source) and only a 63 Sagarin. A poor finish and/or conf tourney finish could mean the boot for them, but I suspect they sneak in.


All others:

WAC: Utah St is in. A loss in the conf tourney produces two WAC bids

WCC: Zaga and St Marys are in. Portland needs to win the tourney. A San Diego-ish repeat?

Southern: Davidson is in for sure, anchored by a huge win over West Virginia and a great showing against Duke. A loss in the conf tourney produces two. Charleston?

All others will only send the conf winner.


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Monday, February 23, 2009

Boaris Cracks, Musa Blast Off, Aka Rising

Points are stacking up as we approacheth the end of regular season and beginning of tournaments, and the big winners last week were...

1. MUSASHISAN! That's right, cellar dweller Musa nailed 36 points to shoot from last to 10th place, and that was without any of the four conference champs dolled out to others. How did he achieve this amazing feat? Lowly Oregon St beat California and Stanford (Boaris)... Lowly St. Louis beat St. Joes (Boaris) & Dayton (Akaoni)... Florida St beat Miami (Turtle) and Virginia Tech (Boaris)... Iowa over Michigan (Akaoni), Wash St over UCLA (Turtle), Penn St over Illinois, even Western Kentucky beat conference rival Arkansas Little Rock (Progress) to lead to the only decent week Musashisan has had all year. Congrats!

2. AKAONI! No conference champs here, he took 34 points the hard way: Purdue over Mich St (Babs), Texas A&M over Texas (Progress), Florida over Alabama and Vandy, Drake over UNI and Austin Peay... Akaoni is likely the one player that doesn't stand a chance of winning a conference so he needs the points. These 34 points put him just 7 points behind first place Boaris, who turned in a second slumpy week of play.

In fact, lets take a closer look at Boaris' week, since he is the team to beat: Oklahoma lost to Texas, Kentucky lost to Vandy, Virginia Tech dropped two games, Stanford lost to both Oregon and Oregon St which is really sucky, Butler lost to Milwaukee, St. Joes lost two straight in the A-10, Miss St fell to Alabama, Providence dropped two in the Big East, and Austin Peay lost to Drake in the Bracket Buster. Boaris' 6-13 record would make even last place NotaTurtle cringe (Turtle went 10-9 last week). But... can anyone beat Pitt?

The rest of us:
Phunmunki - 30 points to jump from 9th to 6th place
The CEO - 28 points to climb to 5th place
ProgressMedia - 26 points moves into 7th place
Jutdog Millionaire - 23 points
Jaybird - 22 points
Notaturtle - 20 points
HippieD - 18 points falls into 11th place
Babblemur - 17 points falls from 2nd to 3rd place
Boaris - 16 points to show signs of weakness and vulnerability
Gunz - 11 points to drop from 5th place to 9th place

Team of the Week: Morgan State (ProgressMedia) who won 3 games this week to seal the conference championship of the MEAC, nice job!

Conference Champs:
So far 4 conference championship points have been doled out so far. Champs get 7 points for Majors, 6 for Minors. We have:
Big Sky - Weber St (Jutdog)
MAAC - Siena (The CEO)
MEAC - Morgan St (Progress Media)
West Coast - Gonzaga (Phunmunki)

This week we will likely see a dozen or more conferences sealed up, which is a lot of bonus points flying around. Look for the leader board to shake up even more.

Wednesday, February 18, 2009

Conference Winners and Showdowns

America East:

Boston's (CEO) fall to Stony Brook dropped them to 9-5 in the A-East, and Binghampton's win over Hartford put them at 11-3. With just two games left, New Hampshire and UMBC both at home, Binghampton is putting the pressure on Vermont (Phunmunki) to win their final conference game at Maine on March 1 in order to claim the America East Champ points. Sorry Boston, it's over for you here.

Colonial:

VCU (CEO) took sole possession of first place in the Colonial with a win over Delaware tonight, they are now 12-4 with 2 games remaining. Northeastern (Jaybird) lost to Georgia state to fall to 11-5. George Mason (HippieD) won a squeeker against Drexel to step up to 11-5, a game out of first place. Old Dominion (Gunz) won again putting them at 10-6, a long shot to share a piece of the Colonial title.

Horizon:

Guess what? It's close now! Butler (Boaris) suffered their second straight loss, first time in over 100 games, and to UW-Milwaukee (Turtle)! Apparently there was some last seconds clock malfunction that may have denied Butler time but the score stands. Butler (13-3) now holds a one game lead over Green Bay (Jutdog) who beat Valpo to move to 12-4. Two games out is Cleveland State (Turtle), who is now 11-5 after beating Youngstown St. Wright St (Akaoni) fell to 10-6 after losing to Illinois-Chicago. There are two games left in the Horizon.

MAAC:

Siena (The CEO) didn't play, but Rider's defeat of Niagara put Siena 3 games up on Niagara with just 2 games left to go. Guess what? Conference Champs for Siena!!! SIX POINTS FOR THE CEO FOR WINNING THE MAAC!

MAC:

The MAC is still a tight race between Buffalo (Jaybird), who lost to Bowling Green tonight to fall to 9-3; Miami-Ohio (Gunz) who lost to Akron putting both teams at 8-4; and Kent State (Turtle) who won Tuesday to move to 8-4. There are still four games left in the MAC, and Western Michigan (HippieD) moved to 6-6 with a win over E. Mich.

MEAC:

The Morgan State (Progress Media) win over Howard puts them 3 1/2 games up in the MEAC and guarantees them at least a share of the Conference Champ, if not winning it outright (which is likely). So SIX POINTS FOR PROGRESS MEDIA FOR WINNING THE MEAC!

Missouri Valley:

Drake's (Akaoni) upset over Northern Iowa (The CEO) has led to a tie at the top of the MVC. Northern Iowa and Creighton (Babblemur) are tied at 12-4, with Illinois State (ProgressMedia) a game behind at 11-5 after a strong win over Wichita St tonight. There are two games left, and Illinois State plays both Northern Iowa and Creighton putting their fate in their own hands. I'm smelling a three way tie here at 13-5...

Mountain West:

Still a toss up - but Utah (Jutdog) helped their case with a win at Colorado St, and UNLV (HippieD) hurt theirs with a loss at Wyoming. BYU (Phunmunki), San Diego St (Babblemur) and New Mexico (Akaoni) are all in this chase.

Patriot

Holy Cross (Babblemur) and American (ProgressMedia) both won conference games tonight leading up to their Saturday showdown. American holds a one game lead over Holy Cross with three games left in conference play. American and Holy Cross face off Saturday. Holy Cross won their last match off at home, this one is at American U.

UPDATE (Friday 3/20): Weber St beat Montana Thursday in the Big Sky, clinching at least a tie in the Big Sky with Montana, but since Weber St beat Montana both meetings, JUTDOG GETS SIX POINTS FOR WEBER ST WINNING THE BIG SKY!

UPDATE (Sunday 3/22):
Gonzaga's win puts them 3 games ahead of their closest competition (Portland) in the WCC with just 3 games left. Even if they lose every game remaining (which is unlikely) they will still be conference champs (they beat Portland twice this year). So PHUNMUNKI GETS SIX POINTS FOR GONZAGA WINNING THE WCC!

Monday, February 16, 2009

Week 14 Recap: Gunz & Phun

Week Fourteen was brutal and we saw some shake ups in conference standings.

Recap

Gunz and Phunmunki scored the most points, 29 for Gunz and 30 for Phunmunki. Phunmunki did it thanks to Wisconsin starting to beat teams again (Iowa and Ohio State), combined with some important wins (Gonzaga over St. Mary's, Vermont over Boston, Maryland over Virginia Tech and Belmont over E. Tenn St.). Phunmunki is now a mere 4 points behind Progress Media, but still in 9th place.

Gunz was the only player who changed the standings, his 29 points boosted him past The CEO and Jaybird and back into 5th place, while The CEO passed Jaybird to stay in 6th, leaving Jaybird in 7th. Gunz did this with two Top 10 Knockoffs: Notre Dame finally pulling their heads out of their asses and beating Louisville, and Boston College knocking down Duke. Other important wins helped Gunz as well, including Missouri beating both Kansas and Nebraska, Old Dominion taking down VCU, and Miami (OH) over Western Michigan.

The rest of the scoreboard remained the same. Boaris, Babblemur, Akaoni, Jutdog, The CEO and Progress all picked up between 21 & 24 points, HippieD & Jaybird fell behind with 17 each, and Musa & Turtle brought up the rear with 14 a piece.

Team of the Week

North Carolina deserves it, beating #6 Duke and holding off a pesky Miami team to take a two game lead in the ACC.

Conference Standings

As just noted, North Carolina (Jaybird) has opened up a two game lead in the ACC, probably can't be stopped now. Oklahoma (Boaris) is stomping undefeated through the Big 12, and Michigan St. (Babblemur) is holding onto a 1 game lead in the Big 10.

UCONN (HippieD) has a 1 1/2 game lead in the Big East at 12-1 but hanging in there at 10-2 is Pitt (Boaris), Marquette (Jaybird) and Louisville (Jutdog). Washington (Akaoni) now has a one game lead in the Pac 10 but that is far from over. LSU (The CEO) holds a two game lead in the messy SEC.

In the mid-majors, Dayton (Akaoni) and Xavier (Phun) are tied for the A-10; VCU (CEO) and Northeastern (Jaybird) are tied for the Colonial; Memphis (Gunz) is blowing them out in C-USA; Butler (Boaris) took a hit and is now only 2 games up in the Horizon, can Green Bay (Jut) catch up?

Buffalo (Jaybird) lost one in the MAC but has a game up on Miami Ohio (Gunz); UNI (CEO) lost another one in the MVC and holds a thin 1 game lead over Creighton (Babblemur); In the Mountain West Utah (Jutdog) has a one game lead over 3 others; Gonzaga (Phunmunki) is undefeated and 3 games up in the West Coast; Utah St (Progress) 3 games up and rising in the WAC;

Thursday, February 12, 2009

BRI 2/11/2009

Babblemur Top 12 as of 2/11/09:

1. Oklahoma - pts: 56 - Boaris - pick 14

2. North Carolina - pts: 50 - Jaybird - pick 1

3. UConn - pts: 48 - HippieD - pick 2

4. Wake Forest - pts: 47 - Jutdog - pick 21

4. Pittsburgh - pts: 47 - Boaris - pick 11

6. Duke - pts: 44 - CEO - pick 6

7. Michigan St - pts: 40 - Babs - pick 10

8. Washington - pts: 39 - Akaoni - pick 41

9. Louisville - pts: 38 - Jutdog - pick 4

10. Xavier - pts: 37 - Phunmunki - pick 29

10. UCLA - pts: 37 - Notaturtle - pick 3

12. Clemson - pts: 36 - Musashisan - pick 31

There are 20 teams in the 30-35 area.

Monday, February 9, 2009

Week Fourteen Will Be Fun Fun Fun

Babblemur brought in the points this week, scoring 29 points off of 15 wins with 4 losses. The next closest were 24 for Jutdog, 23 for ProgressMedia, and 22 a piece for Phunmunki, Boaris and Jaybird. Akaoni (15), HippieD (16) and Gunz (16) fell behind.

There are clearly 3 tiers now:

Top Dogs: Boaris (249), Babblemur (228), Akaoni (223) and Jutdog (219) are setting the pace for the rest.

The Middle: Jaybird (201), The CEO (200), Gunz (194) and Progress Media (193) are all within 8 points of each other, with Gunz falling and the others rising.

The Bottom Feeders: Phunmunki (181), HippieD (175), NotaTurtle (171), and Musashisan (167) are all scrambling to stay out of the basement. Phunmunki and Turtle have been rising, HippieD and Musa falling.

However it is still anyone's game. There are 82 points separating last place from first place, and plenty of games between now and the end.

Team of the Week
UCONN (HippieD) beat back #5 Louisville and Michigan to bring home 8 points (half of HippieD's points for the week and stay on top of the brutal Big East. Nice job!

Expansion Team of the Week
California (Phunmunki) took 6 points off of wins over Washington and Washington St. Nice job!

HOT MIDWEEK ACTION

Hot conference play going on!

In the SEC, Akaoni's Florida (6-2, 19-4) takes on Boaris' Kentucky (5-3, 16-7) on Tuesday in a battle for the top of the SEC East. Then on Wednesday The CEO's LSU (7-1, 19-4) faces Boaris' Miss St. (6-2, 16-7) in a battle for the top of the SEC West. Big games for Boaris.

In the Pac 10 on Thursday, Notaturtle's UCLA (8-2, 19-4) faces Babblemur's Arizona St. (7-4, 18-5) to stay on top of the league.

The Wedneday game between Phunmunki's Xavier (8-1, 20-3) against Akaoni's Dayton (7-2, 21-3) could decide the Atlantic 10 champ.

The West Coast game on Thursday between Gonzaga (Phunmunki) and St. Mary's (ProgressMedia) may determine once and for all who the WCC champ is. St. Mary's lost the last meeting at Gonzaga. This one is at St. Mary's. Zaga is 8-0.

In the America East, The CEO's Boston (9-2, 14-9) takes on Phunmunki's Vermont (8-3, 17-7). Vermont won the last match up at Boston by 16 points.

And of course we have the North Carolina (7-2, 21-2) vs. Duke (7-2, 20-3) matchup on Wednesday between brothers Jaybird & CEO. ACC first place is on the line.

And don't forget the Mountain West Showdown on Wednesday between Jutdog's Utah (7-2, 16-7) and Babblemur's San Diego St. (7-2, 17-5). MWC first place is on the line. The Aztecs won their other meeting.

Sunday, February 8, 2009

Babblechart


Click to embiggen chart

Monday, February 2, 2009

Battling Brothers Bang the Boards

Last week went to the Battling Brothers - which set? Both!

Iowa Brothers Akaoni & NotaTurtle brought in 22 points a piece to top the field, which moved Akaoni solidly into second place and pulled NotaTurtle out of the basement and into 11th place. Akaoni's points came off a weak 10-6 record for the week, but some key wins by Dayton, Purdue and Texas A&M. NotaTurtle might have had his first winning week ever going 12-4. Ole Miss stepped up and beat both Kentucky & Miss St, both Boaris' teams. In fact 6 of Turtle's eight teams went 2-0 while Miami & Baylor went 0-2. Nice job, Turtle!

Wisconsin Brothers slugged away, with Jaybird & The CEO taking in 21 points each, and Jutdog hit 20. Jut has moved just 4 points behind Babblemur, and the other two moved into 5th & 6th place. Jaybird was 13-3, undefeated on Saturday, with some important wins from Northeastern and ND St. who are trying to lock up their minor conferences. Marquette is looking bad-ass, too. The CEO did even better, 13-2, also undefeated on Saturday. Villanova knocked off Pitt, and LSU knocked off Tennessee and Arkansas. Jut's 20 points was on 12-4 play, Wake lost after topping #1 Duke, and San Diego dropped two games before being dropped by the j-dog.

Others?
Gunz = 17; Phunmunki = 16; ProgressMedia = 16; Babblemur = 13; Boaris = 11; Musashisan = 10; HippieD = 7;

Boaris holds onto first place despite going 5-9 overall, and with 8 of those losses against other players. Boaris holds a 19 point lead on Akaoni.

Team of the Week:
Ole Miss (NotaTurtle) for finally pulling their heads out of their asses and beating some good basketball teams.

Bracketology
If you like to check out the odds of making the Big Dance, there is a new Bracketology out today on ESPN. (It would have been nice to see this new one before the draft, that South Carolina pick by Akaoni may be paying off...)

If these projections (including projected automatic bids from the minor conferences) come through then...

  • Boaris - 5 teams
  • Akaoni - 5 teams
  • Babblemur - 6 teams
  • Jutdog - 7 teams
  • Jaybird - 8 teams
  • The CEO - 5 teams
  • Gunz - 4 teams
  • ProgressMedia - 6 teams
  • Phunmunki - 5 teams
  • HippieD - 4 teams
  • NotaTurtle - 3 teams
  • Musashisan - 5 teams
That left only 2 teams on drafted - Morehead St. and Long Beach.

Games to Watch:
You can't overlook the UCONN - Louisville game Monday night, but don't overlook the Butler-Green Bay game for the lead in the Horizon...

On Tuesday UNLV (HippieD) and San Diego St (Babs) fight it out for first place in the Mountain West.

Wednesday's Michigan St - Minnesota should determine if Michigan St. actually sucks, or if they are going to run away with the Big 10 title. And Clemson has a chance to even things out on top of the ACC with a big game against Duke.

Thursday has UCLA vs. USC, which will make a big difference in the Pac 10 standings.

Saturday is even bigger than before thanks to the 24 new teams! Inter-conference play alert: Gonzaga-Memphis has potential to be a fun game to watch, and UCLA takes on struggling Notre Dame, and UCONN faces rising Michigan. Green Bay vs. Milwaukee in the Horizon could be critical for both, Austin Peay (Boaris) faces Murray St. (Progress) in the OVC, and New Mexico (Akaoni) can fight their way back up in the Mountain West against UNLV (HippieD).

Sunday's Purdue - Illinois game in the Big 10 is big for both, and Creighton (Babs) goes after first place UNI (CEO) in the MVC.

Sunday, February 1, 2009

The Best & The Worst - Half Way There

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Top Picks - Considering Round Taken:

1. Boaris Pick 60 - Butler - 30 points, 18-1, top 15 in nation, undefeated in conf play

2. Gunz Pick 61 - Minnesota - 31 points, 17-3 and contender for Big 10 champ

3. Akaoni Pick 41 - Washington - 36 Points, contender for Pac 10 champ

4. Progress Media Pick 88 - Illinois State - 27 Points, 17-4 overall (last round pick)

5. Boaris Pick 14 - Oklahoma - 49 points, highest point gainer, national contender

6. Phunmunki Pick 29 - Xavier - 34 points, 19-2 record and leading Atl 10

7. Jutdog Pick 21 - Wake Forest - 44 points, 2nd overall point gainer, national contender

Honerable Mention: UNC - Jaybird; Dayton - Akaoni; West Virginia - Babs; Pitt - Boaris; UCONN - HippieD; LSU - CEO


Worst Picks - Considering Round Taken:

1. GUNZ Pick 36 - Southern Ill - 13 pts. Selected 4 spots ahead of Washington, who has 36 pts. No chance of much more.

2. Notaturtle Pick 46 - Kent St - 13 pts and no chance of much more

3. Gunz Pick 13 - Notre Dame - 21 pts, 11-8 overall, may finish with losing conf record, picked just ahead of Oklahoma and Arizona St.

4. Phunmunki Pick 20 - Wisconsin - 17 pts, lost 6 straight, may not make the NCAA, picked one ahead of Wake Forest

5. HippieD Pick 50 - Murray St - 8 pts, what the hell was he thinking?

6. Babs Pick 87 - Charlotte - 11 pts, 7-13 record, no chance of conf contention

7. HippieD Pick 95 - Western Michigan - 5 pts, yes, 5 pts. UW Steven's Point was worth more...

Disgraceful Mention: Middle Tenn St - CEO; Davidson - ProgressMedia; Nevada - Phunmunki; Miami - Notaturtle; Iowa - Musashisan; Alabama St - Jaybird;


Top 1-2 Punch:

1. Boaris - Pitt & Oklahoma. Both top 10 in nation & conf contenders

2. Jaybird - UNC and Marquette. Both top 10 in nation & conf contenders

3. Jutdog - Louisville and Wake Forest. Both top 10 in nation & conf contenders

Honorable Mention: CEO with Duke & Villanova; Babs with Michigan St & Syracuse; HippieD with UConn & UNLV ?; Akaoni with Purdue & Clemson; Phunmunki with Xavier & Gonzaga.