The Expanda-Draft Cometh

The Expanda-Draft aspect of this contest was put in for several reasons - to allow players to pick up teams that surprised everyone and are marching towards an NCAA birth, to add the possibility of "tweaking" your squad to improve your chances - especially for those bottom dwellers, and to give players a chance to pick up mid and low major conference teams that look like they are going to stomp their way into the Big Dance.

As we think about our draft options, consider these point rules:

- A team that wins a major conference (6) regular season earns 9 points
- A team that wins a mid-major conference (9) regular season earns 7 points
- A team that wins a non-major conference regular season earns 6 points
- A team that wins a major conference (6) tournament earns 7 points
- A team that wins a mid-major conference (9) tournament earns 5 points
- A team that wins a non-major conference (16) tournament earns 4 points
- A team that completes the regular conference season undefeated earns +3 points.

This is where a non-major team can be worth drafting - they win a dozen games (12 points) plus win their conference (6 pts) and tournament (4 pts). Plus keep in mind...

- Each team that makes the NCAA tourney receives 3 points

So while picking up a major conference team like Cincy or Virginia has the advantage of possible points against Duke or Pittsburgh, they may not see any of the points above.


RULES OF THE INTERIM DRAFT & RELEASE

- The last week of January, each player must draft 2 additional teams.

- Draft order will utilize snake method, with pick 1 going to last place point earner

- A voluntary third round will take place following the 2-round draft, in which one team from the original roster can be dropped and a new team picked up. All existing points from original team will remain. Order will continue snake method from round 2.

- Points will begin to be earned by the new teams on February 2, and new points will no longer be added for the discarded team effective February 2.


The draft order is set following the last game on: Sunday, January 23, 2011. Due to the number of picks, we'll be looking to get going right away Monday Jan 24. Current Draft Order if it happened today:

1. Musashisan 113 (79-49)
2. Slake B 116 (72-48)
3. Some Guy in Illinois 125 (81-43)
4. Jutdog 131 (83-40)
5. Jaybird 142 (89-39)
6.....


Top Major and Mid-Major Teams on the Radar:

1. Cincinnatti (16-1)
2. Virginia (10-6 every game is head to head)
3. Nebraska (13-3)
4. UCF (14-1)
5. Hostra (5-0 conf with 3 other players in)
6. Arkansas (11-4)
7. Boise St (4-0 conf)
8. Cleveland State (15-3)
9. Colorado St (11-5)
10. Tulane (12-4)
11. Marshall (12-4)
12. James Madison (13-3)
13. Iowa St (13-4)
14. George Washington (3-0 conf play; 10-5)
15. Duquense (2-0 conf play; 10-5)
16. Portland (12-4)

Welcome New Teams!

Lets welcome our 22 New Teams to the Babbleball Contest!

• The Atlantic 10 got a boost with Temple, Rhode Island and Charlotte all jumping in to join Dayton, Xavier, and Richmond. Temple plays Duquesne on Wed and at Richmond Saturday, Charlotte draws GW and Fordham this week, and Rhode Island gets LaSalle and UMASS.
• New Mexico joins the Mountain West fray by hosting San Diego State on Saturday.
  
• UAB and UTEP jump into the CUSA in a three way tie with Tulsa, and Memphis a game out. UAB is on the road this week against Memphis and Rice. UTEP is at home against two player owned squads, Houston and Tulsa.
  
• Morgan State looks to remain undefeated in the MEAC this week.
  
• Marquette and St. Johns join the other shitload of Big East teams - Marquette draws DePaul and Providence this week, St. Johns will likely get pounded by a hot Rutgers and West Virginia.
  
• Virginia and Miami (FL) join the rest of the floundering ACC looking for some easy points. Virginia gets NC State and and Wake this week. Miami sees Wake and Florida St.
  
• Murray State looks to hold onto their undefeated record in the OVC
• Wichita State enters the MVC already 2 games down on Northern Iowa. They can make that one game down by beating them on Wednesday. Indiana St is on deck for Saturday.
  
• The SOCON gets Charleston and Western Carolina into play and into competition for the conference. Guess what? They've already played each other in their only match up and WC won.
  
• Coastal Carolina starts off 2 games up on Radford in the Big South, they'll face off in two weeks (Radford won the last meeting).
  
• Louisiana Tech joins Utah St and Nevada in the WAC. They will eventually have road games against both, but for this week, San Jose St.
  
• Northeastern and William & Mary were picked up in the Colonial, but no one took George Mason? GM has a 1 game lead over Northeastern and Old D. Northeastern faces Delaware and Hofstra this week. The Tribe are on the road at Old D and Georgia St.
  
• Pacific joins the Big West with a 1.5 game lead. They take on Santa Barbara and Cal Poly this week.
  
• Quinnipiac is in da house, in da NEC, one game back. They play Sacred Heart twice this week.
  
• Finally, Oregon St is no more, and Washington State takes their place in the Pac 10. Can you believe that at 4-5 they are only two games out of first place? They could grab a quick 6 points by hosting Arizona and Arizona St this week.
  

Welcome to the new teams!

Week 12 Recap:

Virtually no change in the leader board by the end of the week. Akaoni extended his first place lead by a half dozen points by going 12-4 for 22 points, leading all players for the week. Boaris hit 17 to stay in second place, 13 for Gunz kept him in third, Jaybird bounced back with 16 points to remain in 4th. Jutdog's 20 points tied him up with NotaTurtle, who hit 15. The CEO remains just a few points back after a fine 19 point week. Babblemur's 15 kept him solidly in 8th place, ahead of Phunmunki (10 pts for the week) and Some Guy from Illinois (10 pts for the week).

Standings After Week 12:

• 1. Akaoni - 225 (127-40)
• 2. Boaris - 206 (130-38)
• 3. Gunz - 201 (123-47)
• 4. Jaybird - 198 (119-47)
• 5. Jutdog - 179 (114-48)
• 6. NotaTurtle - 179 (105-59)
• 7. The CEO - 177 (117-52)
• 8. Babblemur - 169 (117-49)
• 9. Phunmunki - 159 (106-60)
• 10. Some Guy in Illinois - 154 (114-56)

Expanda-Draft Part Two - The Rest

The Expanda-Draft aspect of this contest was put in for several reasons - to allow players to pick up teams that surprised everyone and are marching towards an NCAA birth, to add the possibility of "tweaking" your squad to improve your chances, and to give players a chance to pick up mid and low major conference teams that look like they are going to stomp their way into the Big Dance.

As we think about our draft options, consider these point rules:

- A team that wins a major conference regular season earns 7 points
- A team that wins a non-major conference regular season earns 6 points
- A team that wins a major conference tournament earns 5 points
- A team that wins a non-major conference tournament earns 4 points
- A team that completes the regular conference season undefeated earns +3 points.

This is where a mid or low major team can be worth drafting - they win a dozen games (12 points) plus win their conference (6 pts) and tournament (4 pts). Plus keep in mind...

- Each team that makes the NCAA tourney receives 4 points

So while picking up a major conference team like Marquette or North Carolina St has the advantage of possible points against Duke or Pittsburgh, they won't likely see any of the points above.

So to the Babbanalysis - "Mid-Majors"

• #16 Temple 16-3 (4-0 Atl 10) - I would be shocked if they weren't the first team drafted. They are the only ranked team not owned by a player, their A-10 run includes wins over Rhode Island and Xavier, they have wins over Villanova, Seton Hall, Virginia Tech. Their three losses: Georgetown, St. Johns, and Kansas.
• Rhode Island 15-2 (3-1 Atl 10) - while we are on the Atlantic 10, you can't ignore Rhode Island's success this year. They are 15-2! Those two losses? A two point loss on the road to Virginia Commonwealth, and a four point loss in overtime to Temple. Basically, they've never been blown out. Have they had any significant wins? Oklahoma St, Boston College, Providence. They play Saturday at Xavier, lets see how that turns out.
  
• Other Atlantic 10 teams worth considering: Charlotte 13-5 (3-1) beat the poop out of Louisville back in December, and their five losses are all to pretty decent programs (Duke, Ga Tech, Tennessee, Xavier, Old Dominion). St. Louis 12-6 (3-1) is probably more of a fluke.
• New Mexico 17-3 (3-2 Mountain West) was ranked in the Top 25 for a while, when they were 12-0 it was hard to deny them. A loss to Oral Roberts may have bumped them out, but the Lobos only other two losses were to San Diego State and UNLV. They have quality wins over Louisiana Tech, California, Texas A&M, Creighton, Dayton, and Texas Tech. Their coach is an a-hole, but unless you are from Iowa, you might want to consider picking these guys up.
  
• UAB 16-2 (4-0 Conference USA) UAB is turning into a team to look at. Their only losses are an early tournament loss to Kent State and a road game at Virginia. They haven't gotten to the "tough" part of the CUSA schedule, but they have wins over Georgia, Cincinnati, Butler and Arkansas. Can they win the C-USA?
  
• Marshall 15-3 (4-0 Conference USA) Another surprise, but when you look at the teams they have beat, the 15 wins isn't that impressive. Their three losses are to Old Dominion, North Carolina, and West Virginia. Check the Marshall-UAB game Saturday (1/23) to see if either team is "hot".
  
• UTEP 12-5 (3-1 Conference USA) why not? Good wins over Oklahoma and Memphis. Losses to New Mexico St, Texas Tech, Ole Miss, BYU and Houston. Can they win the CUSA?
  
• Wichita State 17-3 (6-2 Missouri Valley) - The CEO had the smart pick in the MVC with UNI, but could Wichita St make a play for it? Only Pitt, Illinois St and Creighton have beaten them so far. About the best win though is Texas Tech, but they did beat Bradley, Drake and a bunch of other mid and minor teams.
  
• Louisiana Tech 17-3 (5-1 WAC) - Jut took Utah State and Jaybird took Nevada, but Louisiana Tech is the WAC team that has marched to a 17-3 record and top of the WAC. Do they deserve it? Their 10 game winning streak was just snapped by a loss to San Jose St (10-8), their only other two losses were at Arizona and at New Mexico. They have wins over TCU, Houston, and Nevada, but nothing of higher quality than that. The question now is can they win the WAC?
  
• New Mexico State 12-7 (5-1 WAC) - the Aggies had a rough start with a relatively tough schedule but have won 9 of their last 10 games to give them a strong start in the WAC.
  

The Mid-Majors here have a shot at taking their conferences, but also benefit from possible player v. player games in every conference. This is not always the case with the "Low Majors". If they don't win their conference, they weren't worth taking.

Some Low Majors to think about:

• Vermont (14-6, 5-1 AmEast) and Maine (13-6, 5-1 AmEast) are in heavy competition for this conference. Maine took out Boston College earlier in the season, and got creamed by Syracuse and UCONN. Vermont's best win was over, well, Maine.
  
• Campbell (12-6, 7-2 AtlSun) beat Babblemur's Jacksonville (10-8, 7-3 AtlSun) and sits a half game ahead of the Dolphins in the Atlantic Sun. I would say that it would be a risky and foolish gamble to draft Campbell, except for the fact that they are the "Fighting Camels". Dude.
  
• The Big Sky is wide open, but no clear leader. Weber State (12-7, 6-1) sits a half game up on Northern Colorado (17-4, 6-2). NoCol came within one point of knocking off Oklahoma. Weber St lost to BYU by 17 and UNLV by 9. Northern Colorado won the only match up between these two so far.
  
• Coastal Carolina (18-3, 8-1 Big South) - Zing! What a record! Eat your heart out, Radford! Their only losses are to Duke, Cal St. Northridge, and, um, well, Radford. Select at your own risk.
  
• In the Big West, Turtle took a chance with Long Beach St that isn't playing out. Take a chance and try and steal the conference with Pacific (11-6, 4-1) or UC Santa Barbara (9-7, 4-2) but every other team here has a losing record. Pacific has wins over Nevada and San Diego St. Santa B has wins over Weber State and Pacific. Meh.
  
• William & Mary (14-5, 6-3 Colonial) at one point had a 10 game winning streak, with big wins over Richmond, Wake Forest, Maryland and Radford. Now they've hit a two game slide in the Colonial. Can they turn it around? They obviously got the right stuff. But don't write off Northeastern (13-7, 8-1 Colonial) who is riding an 11 game winning streak and tied for first in the conference.
  
• Harvard (13-3, 2-0 Ivy) - the conference without a tournament, best record wins it. Cornell is hot hot hot, is Harvard even worth a shot? They have wins over Boston College, George Washington, William & Mary. Their three losses are to Georgetown, UCONN, and Army. Still, they can't beat Cornell.
  
• Fairfield (14-5, 7-2 MAAC) - I wasn't going to include them at all because Siena is already 9-0 and likely to go undefeated to take the MAAC. However, consider that Niagara is a player team as well in the MAAC, meaning you might actually pick up a few points here.
  
• In the MAC you can take your chances. No clear dominant team here. Jaybird's Akron is probably the best of the bunch. Buffalo (10-6, 3-2) or Kent St (12-7, 3-2) could give them some trouble.
  
• Morgan State (13-7, 5-0 MEAC) is running away here, with Bethune-Cookman (12-7, 5-1 MEAC) hot on their tail. Props to Morgan State for beating Arkansas, for what its worth.
  
• Robert Morris (12-8, 7-1 NEC) have a half game lead over pre-season favorite Quinnipiac (12-6, 6-1 NEC), but keep your eye on Sacred Heart (12-7, 5-3). Ha Ha Ha!
  
• Can Murray State (17-3, 9-0 Ohio Valley) pull off the undefeated conference record? Their 3 losses are to California, Western Kentucky, and Louisiana Tech, all pretty good teams. Morehead State (14-6, 8-1 Ohio Valley) is ready to step in if Murray State stumbles.
  
• Lafayette (13-7, 4-1 Patriot) and LeHigh (13-7, 4-1 Patriot) are duking it out. Note that Lehigh just beat Lafayette 75-57 Saturday, so this will be a barn burner.
  
• College of Charleston (13-6, 8-0 Southern) is shooting for the undefeated conference record, and is at least 2 games up over the competition even if they stumble. Oh, and they beat North Carolina 82-79 in overtime.
  
• The Southland Conference has two undefeated teams in Texas A&M Corpus Christi (9-8, 4-0) and Sam Houston State (11-5, 3-0). Two other teams are going to fight for this conference as well - Stephen F. Austin (13-5, 3-2) and Texas San Antonio (12-4, 2-1). Sam Houston knocked off Auburn, Texas A&M-CC finished 7 points down against Texas. San Anton beat Houston and Iowa, SF Austin lost to Minnesota by 40 points.
  
• Prairie View A&M (9-7, 4-1 SWAC) is the only team in the conference with a winning record. But Texas Southern (9-9, 5-1), Jackson State (7-11, 5-1) and Arkansas Pine Bluff (4-12, 4-1) all are making a play for it. I'd stay far far away from this fluster cluck.
  
• IUPUI (14-7, 7-1 Summit) look like the only challengers to The CEO's Oakland, who are carrying an undefeated conference record.
  
• The Sun Belt is a colossal mess, and I'm not going to try to sort it out. Jaybird's Western Kentucky has their hands full with competition from Denver (13-7, 6-3), North Texas (12-7, 5-4), and a hand full of others. This conference is a huge risk.
  

All in all I don't think there are any really strong picks anywhere in the Mids or Lows. Everyone is a gamble at this point. Who will win the conferences? Who will win the conference tournaments? Who can nab you some quick points, or flame out on you?

The Expanda-Draft begins Monday January 25 at sunrise - last place player picks first, etc.

Expanda Draft Part One - the Big Six

Expanda-Draft Watch - Part One

Believe it or not, we actually drafted most of the best teams out there, with a few exceptions. The Expanda-Draft begins Monday, so in the interest of helping my fellow players pick the best teams, I shall begin my babbanalysis of available teams.

The Big Six (Conferences that is).

Akaoni buttered his bread with teams from the Big Six Conferences, and frankly there isn't much left out there to pick through. But if you must... There are 22 teams in the Big Six that haven't been selected yet, 15 of them with a winning record.

The ACC: There's some potential in these teams.

• Virginia 12-4 (3-0 ACC) - how did this happen? Surely it must be a fluke. The Cavs have beat #19 Georgia Tech and Miami at home, and NC State on the road. The only other significant win might be UAB at home. Losses? Before this 8 game winning streak Virginia lost to Auburn, Stanford, Penn St., and South Florida. This Week: See how they do at Wake Forest on Saturday if you want to know if these punks are worth it.
• Miami (FL) 15-4 (1-4 ACC) - these guys were on my short list until they dropped two games last week on the road at Virginia Tech and Virginia. Their only other loss was on the road at Boston College. Can they win on the road? Does Pepperdine count? Stetson? On the other hand, they've beaten Wake, Minnesota, South Carolina and Tulane. This Week: Miami lost to Boston College in their only game this week. At home.
  
• North Carolina State 12-6 (1-3 ACC) - I don't know, are they worth considering or not? Losses: Clemson, Virginia, Florida, @Arizona, @Wake, Northwestern. No "bad" losses, just a lot of them. Quality wins? @Marquette, @Florida State. This Week: Looking good by beating Duke on Wednesday, they play Saturday at Maryland.

Big 12

• Iowa State 12-6 (1-2 Big 12) - They really don't have a "bad" loss - Northwestern, UNI, California, Duke and Texas. But they really don't have a "great" win either, Houston is about the best they've beat. This Week: they lost to Texas Tech and play Kansas this weekend. I say if they beat Kansas, they might be worth taking (in the second round of expandadraft...)
• Texas Tech 13-5 (1-3 Big 12) - three game losing streak and a loooong conference schedule ahead of them. I don't think they can handle it. Best win: Washington in overtime. This Week: they beat Iowa State and play Oklahoma this weekend.
  
• Nebraska 12-6 (0-3 Big 12) - three game losing streak and a loooong conference schedule ahead of them. I don't think they can handle it. This Week: Saturday at Missouri
• Colorado 10-8 (1-3 Big 12) - Are they any good? They lost to Oregon State. Nuff said. (They did beat Baylor though...)

Big East - this conference is too damn big. Ten of 16 teams are already player owned - are any of the remaining 6 worth it? None are likely to win this beast, but all would likely get a lot of opportunity for points.

• Providence 11-7 (3-3 Big East) - nothing impressive here. They beat bad teams and lose to good ones. They play South Florida Saturday.
  
• St. Johns 12-6 (2-4 Big East) - They beat Cincy and Temple, and no bad losses really. They play Villanova on Saturday.
  
• Marquette 11-7 (2-4 Big East) - They looked good early on, beat Georgetown, Michigan, Xavier, and their worst loss is Depaul. Hmmm. They play Syracuse on Saturday.
  
• South Florida 11-7 (1-5 Big East) - Put it this way, they've lost every game they've played against another player's team. Saturday is at Providence.
  
• Rutgers 9-9 (0-6 Big East) - The 7 game losing streak doesn't inspire confidence.
  
• Depaul 8-10 (1-5 Big East) - Losing record, come on. They are one of the only teams that have beat Northern Iowa though, beat Marquette Wednesday, and take on Notre Dame Saturday.
  

Big 10 - Not only were two many teams taken here (i.e. Penn St) but what's left is hardly worth mentioning.

• Indiana 9-9 (3-3 Big Ten) - Could they actually be worth it? They are coming off wins over Penn St and Minnesota and have wins over Michigan and Pittsburgh. They play Iowa Sunday.
  
• Iowa 7-12 (1-5 Big Ten) - Don't do it.
  

Pac 10 - The Pac 10 is just one messed up conference. The four teams un-picked are playing better than several teams that were picked. The Pac 10 is completely up for grabs, and since they all suck, there are points a poppin' there.

• Washington St 14-5 (4-3 Pac 10) - I think their record is deceiving. The best win they have is over Arizona, but their five losses are against Cal, Arizona St, Oregon, Kansas St, and Gonzaga. They face UCLA Saturday.
  
• USC 11-7 (3-3 Pac 10) - Good wins: Arizona St, Arizona, Tennessee, UNLV, St. Mary's. Bad losses: Loyola Marymount back in November. These guys are worth a look. See how they do against Washington on Saturday.
  
• Stanford 9-9 (3-3 Pac 10) - They've lost every road game they've played, and a few home games as well. They beat Oregon St. Wednesday and play Oregon Saturday.
  
• Oregon 10-8 (2-4 Pac 10) - Their four game losing streak follows a win at Washington and a bunch of other patsy games. But really, a losing record in the Pac-10?
  

SEC - The teams left are completely unbearable. Georgia (8-8, 0-3), Auburn (10-9, 1-3) and LSU (9-9, 0-4) would all be horrible picks at this point. I won't even waste bullets on them.

So there's the Big Six. See anyone you like? Next post - "The Rest", in which the teams that might actually be worth drafting will be listed.

Expanda-Draft Updates

The mid-season expansion draft is underway.

If possible I will post updates here.

1. NotaTurtle - Illinois (Big 10)
   
2. Musashisan - Penn State (Big 10)
   
3. Phunmunki - California (Pac 10)
   
4. HippieD - Nebraska (Big12)
   
5. ProgressMedia - Utah State
   
6. Gunz - Missouri (Big 12)
   
7. The CEO - Northern Iowa (MVC)
   
8. Jaybird - Robert Morris (NEC)
   
9. Jutdog - Utah (MWC)
   
10. Babblemur - VMI (Big South)
    
11. Akaoni - Michigan (Big 10)
    
12. Boaris - Providence (Big East)
    
13. Boaris - Austin Peay
    
14. Akaoni - South Carolina (SEC)
    
15. Babblemur - Jacksonville (Atlantic Sun)
    
16. Jutdog - Rhode Island (A-10)
    
17. Jaybird - Buffalo (MAC)
    
18. The CEO - Oral Roberts (Summit)
    
19. Gunz - Cincinatti (Big East)
    
20. ProgressMedia - E. Tenn St. (Atlantic Sun)
    
21. HippieD - Arkansas Little Rock
    
22. Phunmunki - Maryland (ACC)
    
23. Musashisan - Western Kentucky
    
24. NotaTurtle - UW Milwaukee (Horizon)
    

After these two rounds there is one more *optional* round to dump a team and take a different team, or just pass. (Example: Babblemur might dump Charlotte as being worthless for further points and instead take North Texas on the off chance that they might win their conference (6 points) their conference tournament (4 points) and go to the NCAA Tournament (4 points)).

Drop & Add Round

1. NotaTurtle - Pass
   
2. Musashisan - Drop Oregon (Pac 10), Add Oregon St (Pac 10)
   
3. Phunmunki - Pass
   
4. HippieD - Pass
   
5. ProgressMedia - Pass
   
6. Gunz - Pass
   
7. The CEO - Pass
   
8. Jaybird - Pass
   
9. Jutdog - Drop San Diego, Add Weber State
   
10. Babblemur - Drop Charlotte, Add Holy Cross
    
11. Akaoni - Pass
    
12. Boaris - Pass
    

Conference Breakdown Part III The Minors

Three cheers for the little conferences, full of little players and funny looking players and really tall players from foreign lands! The 14 seeds, the 15 seeds, the 16 seeds and the play-in gamers! Hoorah! Hoorah! Hoorah!

America East
Phunmunki picked Vermont (5-2, 14-6), The CEO picked Boston U. (5-2, 10-9). They both sit tied at the top of the A-East along with Binghampton (5-2, 12-7) with Albany right behind (4-3, 12-8). This conference is a crap shoot, let Phunmunki and the CEO shoot the crap here.

Atlantic Sun
Phunmunki has the Belmont Bruins (8-2, 12-7), who should have run away with this conference but instead is facing stiff competition from East Tennessee State (9-1. 15-5) and Jacksonville (9-1, 11-8). I actually considered taking Jacksonville, and both the Jacksonville Dolphins and the E. Tenn St. Buccaneers are worth a look.

Big Sky
Phunmunki again holds the Portland State Vikings (6-1, 15-5), favorites to win but Weber State (6-1, 12-8) are breathing down their necks and beat them once already.

Big South
VMI, the Virginia Military Institute (8-1, 16-3) is the team I wish I would have picked instead of Charlotte. They beat Kentucky, they beat Richmond, they lost to Virginia, they beat Winthrop. They have got to be favorites to take the Big South and go dancing, with only Radford in their way.

Big West
NotaTurtle bet the bank on Cal St. Northridge (4-3, 7-10) and lost. Long Beach St. (5-1, 10-8) have taken the lead in the Big West but Pacific, Davis, & Riverside all will compete in the little Big West Tourney.

Ivy League
Jutdog's Cornell (2-0. 12-6) should wrap up the Ivy. Don't bother with Yale or Columbia this year.

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference (MAAC)
Siena Siena Siena. The CEO took Siena (10-0, 16-5) in the third round for this reason alone - Siena will win the MAAC. Hell they might go a round or two in the Big Dance.

Mid Eastern Athletic Conference (MEAC)
ProgressMedia bet on Morgan State (5-2, 10-10), who did manage to beat Maryland and Depaul, but in conference just lost to Hampton tonight and earlier to Florida A&M. They should be putting this away but instead find themselves tied up with Bethune Cookman, Norfolk State and Hampton. MEAC is poison, I'd stay away from it.

Northeastern
The CEO's Mount St. Marys (5-2, 11-9) is still the best horse in this race with wins over Boston and American but they have been streaky. Fortunately for them they have won six straight to match their six straight losses in December. Despite this Robert Morris (8-1, 13-7) are giving them a run. Robert Morris plays Pittsburgh Feb. 2 so do me a favor and don't give Boaris the free 2 points because you won't beat Pitt for 5 points.

Ohio Valley
I never understood Progress Media's pick of Murray State (5-4, 10-9). Austin Peay (8-1, 12-7) and Tennessee-Martin (7-3, 14-6) have much better chances of winning the OVC Tourney.

Patriot
Progress Media's American University (3-1, 11-7) is still the favorite here but is getting a run from Holy Cross (4-1, 9-11) who just beat American last week.

Southern
Progress Media can count on Davidson (9-0, 16-3) getting an at-large bid in the unlikely chance they lose their conference tourney. You can go maverick and consider Charleston (7-2, 15-4) who has played a tough schedule and is playing hard ball but you won't get an at-large bid.

Southland
Jutdog's Stephen F. Austin (4-1, 12-5) are still favorites but Texas A&M-Corpus Christi is putting up some good numbers (5-0, 11-9) and could make a play for the Tourney Spot.

Southwestern Athletic Conference (SWAC)
Jaybird's Alabama State (6-0, 9-7) are solid and favorites to win the possibly worst conference in Division I. They may be the only team with a winning record when the chips are all counted.

Summit
Jaybird's North Dakota State (8-1, 14-5) was on my short list. They are dominating Summit League play, giving Oral Roberts (8-1, 10-11) some competition for a change. Oakland is the only other team that might challenge.

Sun Belt
The CEO took Middle Tennessee State (6-3, 12-8) and have found themselves in a competitive conference against Western Kentucky (7-2, 13-7) and Arkansas Little Rock (7-2, 14-6), either of which has as much a shot as the Mid Tenn Staters.

Independents
None will dance. Chicago St. (10-9) has played well.


Summary - all these potential picks are a gamble. If they don't win their conference tourney they are a wasted pick.

Western Kentucky (Sun Belt)
Austin Peay (Ohio Valley)
Arkansas Little Rock (Sun Belt)
Charleston (Southern)
VMI (Big South)
Albany (America East)
East Tennessee State (Atlantic Sun)
Texas A&M CC (Southland)
Weber St. (Big Sky)
Robert Morris (Northeastern)
Jacksonville (Atlantic Sun)
Long Beach St. (Big West)
Binghampton (America East)
Oakland (Summit)
Oral Roberts (Summit)
Tenn-Martin (Ohio Valley)
Holy Cross (Patriot)

Conference Breakdowns Part 1 The Majors

The Majors

With the mid-season draft fast approaching, and conference play under way, I thought I would look at the conferences, potential tourney teams and potential draft picks.

The Majors (ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, Pac 10) are worth 7 points for winning the regular season and 5 points for winning the conference tournament.

Big East - The BEAST

9 teams could potentially go to the Big Dance. All nine are owned by players. Could a tenth team go? Providence at 4-2 in the Big East, 12-6 overall? I would say not unless they win the tournament. The Big East will be a blood bath, Notre Dame and Villanova have lost 3 games already. Marquette and Louisville have managed to go 5-0 so far, but that won't last. UCONN, Pitt or Louisville have to be considered the favorites at this point to take the regular season and/or the conference tourney, but it is anyone's guess at this point. Providence would be a risky pick for the expansion draft if you want another Big Dance team but they will get plenty of chances to score some big points against 4 Top 10 teams.

ACC - Nothing to See Here, Move Along

North Carolina was supposed to run away with this season but now that they have proven to be mortal even the ACC is up for grabs. Duke, Wake, North Carolina are shoe ins for the Tourney and the favorites to win the ACC for sure. Miami, Clemson and Florida St are looking like they are tourney bound but I don't think any one of these three have shown that they are killer teams. Clemson and Florida St. especially have not a lot of showcase wins. What about Virginia Tech (Boaris) who just knocked off Wake Forest? Or Boston College (Gunz) who beat North Carolina at NC? Boston College at 2-3, 12-6 overall doesn't have a strong enough case yet, but Virginia Tech could make a strong case with a few more big wins and both teams will have the opportunity to get them. Maryland is worth considering for the expansion draft just for the opportunity to score against Top 10 teams but they are likely NIT bound barring some big big wins.

Big Ten - Seven Dancers?

Illinois (4-2, 16-3) and Michigan (3-4, 13-6) are the two "woops" in the Big 10, as in someone should have picked them. Gunz gets the "Crystal Ball" award for taking Minnesota (4-2, 16-2). These three teams may well be joining Michigan St, Purdue, Wisconsin and Ohio St in the Big Dance. But then again, why Michigan given Penn St (4-3, 15-5)? Better wins, thats why. The Big 10 just doesn't have a Powerhouse Team like the Big East and ACC. Michigan St coulda but the loss at home to Northwestern...? Nonetheless I think Michigan St (Babblemur) is the favorite to win the regular season but the conference tourney will be a crap shoot. Expansion draft teams: Illinois and Michigan for sure. Penn St... nah.

Big 12 - Sooners or Later

Shitty pun, I know, but Oklahoma (4-0, 18-1) has turned into the best second round pick anywhere for Boaris. Preseason favorite Texas (ProgressMedia) will still challenge for the Big 12 championship, and Kansas (Jaybird) and Baylor (NotaTurtle) are likely locks for the NCAA tourney. Texas A&M (Akaoni) entered conference play with a 13-1 record and has gone 1-3 since. Still Tourney bound? Oklahoma St (HippieD) was a gamble pick that seems to be paying off, especially if they can survive the rest of the season and make it to the NCAA as predicted. Look for six teams tourney bound from the Big 12, and OSU and Texas A&M are going to have to beat back free agents Missouri (3-1, 16-3) and Nebraska (2-2, 12-5) if they want in. Which of course is a nice segue to the expansion draft: Missouri and Nebraska should both be given consideration, with Missouri as a very strong option.

Pac 10 - Still a Major Conference, Really

Okay, for some unexplained reason EIGHT teams from the Pac 10 were picked by players. Of the two that weren't, one (California) just happens to be on top of the conference standings, making the Pac 10 a big WTF. Here is what is clear: UCLA (Turtle), Washington (Akaoni), Arizona St (Babblemur) and California (Unclaimed team) are locks for the NCAA, and will be fighting it out for the conference tourney and regular season champ. Oregon (Musa) and Arizona (Progress) should be jettisoned as useless teams. Stanford (Boaris), Washington St. (Musa) and USC (HippieD) are NIT bound unless they get some big big wins and finish in the top 3 or 4. For the expansion draft California should be a top pick (unless you have UCLA, ahem, Turtle).

SEC - Fluster Cluck

9 of these 12 teams were drafted. The three that weren't are Georgia (0-3, 9-9), Auburn (1-3, 11-7), and South Carolina (2-2, 13-4). I guess the gamecocks might be worth drafting... But seriously, of the nine teams picked out of the SEC is there any chance that more than 5 will go to the Big Dance? But which five? Or will there be six? I think the SEC is really hard to judge. Tennessee (Musashisan), Kentucky (Boaris) and Florida (Akaoni) should be in, and ought to be in the running to win the SEC. Mississippi St (Boaris as well) looks like a contender, and what is up with LSU (CEO) who is now 3-1, 15-3 overall, but with a weak schedule. Arkansas (Gunz), if they start winning conference games, could fight their way into contention as well. Alabama (Jaybird), Ole Miss (Turtle) and Vandy (ProgressMedia) may have to win the SEC Tournament to go dancing. I think there is no clear front runner in the SEC. As for the expansion draft - well, there is always South Carolina...

So in summary, for expansion draft consideration I would include from the Majors:

California (Pac 10)
Illinois (Big 12)
Missouri (Big 12)
Michigan (Big 10)
South Carolina (SEC)
Nebraska (Big 12)
Maryland (ACC)
Providence (Big East)

Looks like we'll all be digging into the mid majors and below for our expansion teams!