Mid Major Crunch Time

Horizon Review

Butler. Butler. Butler. Are there other teams in the conf? Butler. If crazy things happen, and Butler (Boaris) loses either of their last 2 games - both at home - AND UWGB (Jutdog) wins on the road at Wright St, the we have a tie for the reg season.

But, likely GB ends tied for 2nd with Cleveland St. And neither receive an at large.

I don't think anyone can say Butler walks through the conf tourney. They've played loads of close conf games this year, and dropped 3 games to different teams. Fortunately, they don't need to win the conf tourney, and are in for sure.

NCAA hopes - At least 1. Maybe 2 if Butler falls in the conf tourney.


MAAC Review

Amazingly, two MAAC teams are borderline. Sienna should be in even with a poor conf tourney finish, with a 62 Sagarin, 23-7 record, 24 RPI, and top 65 SOS. They might lose their next game, played at Niagara, who should finish 24-7. They currently are at 74 Sagarin and 63 RPI. If Niagara can knock Sienna at home, along with a strong conf tourney finale of Niagara vs Sienna, the MAAC could produce two teams in the NCAAs.



Mizz Valley Review

Creighton and Northern Iowa are battling for conf reg season champs. Creighton and Illinois St are battling for a spot in the NCAA tourney. Creighton finishes the season with a battle at home against Ill St.

Creighton will finish the reg season with at least 24 wins, 45 RPI, and 54 Sagarin. I suspect they are in with at least one win in the conf tourney.

Northern Iowa needs to win the conf tourney.

Illinois St will probably also need to win the conf tourney, finishing the reg season with 22 or 23 wins, a 73 Sagarin, a 67 RPI, and weak schedule. This is another of those "make it to the finale of the conf reg season" and they have a chance. A win at Creighton finishing the reg season could greatly help.

NCAA - 1 team.


CUSA Review

Obviously Memphis is in, with a potential 1 seed. Who else?

- UAB (Jaybird) - They should finish 22-9 reg season, with a Sagarin of 41, RPI of 38, and SOS of 71. Unless they blow 2+ games against lesser teams, they're in, and CUSA actually has 2 teams.

- Tulsa, Houston, and UTEP should each be NIT bound, unless Houston can win the rest of their games, including home vs Memphis.


Colonial Review

While the CEO swears by the CAA, I don't think the committee will. They will only send 1 team, regardless of conf tourney finish. Here's why:

VCU: should finish 21-9, with lowly ratings, including 64 RPI, 117 SOS, and 78 Sagarin.

George Mason: should finish 20-9, with slightly better ratings including 54 RPI, 109 SOS, but only 88 Sagarin.

While Northeastern and Old Dominion are solid mid major teams, they aren't worth considering for the NCAA.

The only way two teams go is if George Mason and VCU face off in the final conf tourney game. Even then, it depends on the Providences, Penn States, etc.


Mountain West Review

Can 5 teams really make it from the Mountain West? Utah is shaping up to win the reg season, although both BYU and New Mexico are in striking distance. In fact, a 3-way tie is in my guess is just as probable as an outright Utah win.

Two teams are certainly in: Utah (Jutdog) (20-7, 11-2 conf, 25 Sagarin, 9 RPI, 20 SOS) and BYU (munki) (21-6, 9-4 conf, 23 Sagarin & RPI, 49 SOS).

So what about the others:

- New Mexico (Akaoni): 64 Sagarin, 70 RPI, and 75 SOS. They'll need to finish the season with a good conf tourney, and a win in their upcoming home game vs Utah.

San Diego St (Babs): Should finish the year with 3 wins, but a tough home game vs UNLV could change that. 51 Sagarin, 53 RPI, 60 SOS. They also better not lose the opening round of the conf tourney.

UNLV (HippieD): At one point, they were a top 35 team. Now? They'll finish just above .500 in conf play. Sagarin 52, RPI 50, SOS 68. We'll say it again, They also better not lose the opening round of the conf tourney.

Overall, I say barring a huge upset in the tourney, 3 teams are guaranteed from the MWC, and it depends on how they finish in the conf tourney. Upsets over Utah and BYU could produce 4 NCAA teams.


Atlantic 10 Review:

4-way contention right now:

- Xavier (10-3) - Phunmuni: At St Joes & Richmond, Dayton home. They should finish 13-3

-Temple (9-3) - Jutdog: 3 very winnable games, with a tough road battle at Dayton. I predict a 13-3 first place tie.

- Rhode Island (10-4) - Jutdog: Only two games left, one tough game on the road at Duquesne. Will finish either 11-5 or 12-4.

- Dayton (9-4)- Akaoni: Finishes the conf season with a gauntlet, first losing at Rhode Island, then having to face both Temple (hm) and Xavier (away). Dayton finishes 10-6.

Can 3 teams make it? Xavier is a certain. Temple has the best resume of the remaining teams, with a 53 SOS, 37 RPI, and 57 Sagarin. Rhode Island looks borderline, but needs a VERY strong finish. They post a top 60 RPI and a 61 Sagarin, but have only a 119 SOS.

Dayton has a great RPI (35) and good record, but a SOS at 116 (171 at one source) and only a 63 Sagarin. A poor finish and/or conf tourney finish could mean the boot for them, but I suspect they sneak in.


All others:

WAC: Utah St is in. A loss in the conf tourney produces two WAC bids

WCC: Zaga and St Marys are in. Portland needs to win the tourney. A San Diego-ish repeat?

Southern: Davidson is in for sure, anchored by a huge win over West Virginia and a great showing against Duke. A loss in the conf tourney produces two. Charleston?

All others will only send the conf winner.


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