Lets go straight to the numbers. In the NCAA Tournament, given that every game is now a player-vs-player (and including those points below), this is how many points are at stake:
- National Champion: +62
- Runner Up: +42
- Final Four Losers (x2): +25
- Elite Eight Losers (x6): +11
- The rest of the sweet 16 (x8): +0
But we could be close enough now that the NIT may come into play. There are 11 teams still alive in the NIT, 5 have already reached the (nit)elite 8. This is how the potential for points breaks down depending on if a team has already reached the (nit)elite 8:
- NIT Champ: 22 or 25
- NIT runnerup: 12 or 15
- NIT Final 4 (x2): 5 or 8
- NIT Elite 8 (x6): 0 or 3
So now lets break down the players into three categories: Contenders, Pretenders, & Done
Done:
Musashisan - at over 200 points down with no NCAA teams left, Musashisan is unfortunately beyond done. True, he has four teams still alive, including Miami and Alabama in the NIT, UNI in the CIT and Duquesne in the CBI, but he has no more than 30-35 potential points left. Michigan State, his only NCAA Tourney team, finished as his highest scoring team with 43 points, but Alabama with 40 could meet or pass that.
Some Guy in Illinois - with the Illinois loss on Sunday SGII lost his last team in post season play, freezing him at 352 points and securing 12th place for the season. With four teams advancing to the second round of the NCAA Tournament SGII was looking like he could rise to the level of Contender, but as all four fell over the weekend, it all ended. With 68 points, first round pick Washington was his leading scorer.
Boaris - With a league leading eight teams in the Big Dance, Kansas State's loss eliminated the last of the Mighty Boaris' teams from competition, freezing him at 412 points, in 6th place and dropping. Louisville's fall to Morehead State on Thursday was probably the nail in his coffin, but early falls by Tennessee, UAB, UNLV, Northern Colorado and Princeton didn't help.
The CEO - The CEO's last NCAA team Gonzaga fell on Saturday, ending any chance he has. At 361 points, over 100 out from first place, with only Washington St (possible +25) in the NIT and Buffalo (possible +3?) in the CBI The CEO can finally inscribe his tombstone. Gonzaga at 65 total was his top team.
Mad Mader - With Syracuse and Notre Dame's losses on Sunday Mad Mader, who has been competitive all year in his rookie season, is officially out of contention for the Championship. With 3 teams in the second round he had a chance, but no longer. Only Charleston (potential +22) remains alive in competition. With 74 points Notre Dame was the Mader's lead team, Syracuse close behind at 69.
Pretenders:
Slake B - Ohio State is probably the favorites to win the National Championship. Unfortunately, that is the only Sweet 16 team Slake has. Points out of first: -110. Point potential: +62. But wait - what about Oregon in the CBI? Sorry, not getting 40 points out of the CBI. Slake is as good as done, but has the potential to influence a lot of other potentials as Ohio State marches to the Final Four (Kentucky, Marquette, North Carolina are in the same bracket...)
Jaybird - Pittsburgh OUT! Temple OUT! Only Arizona remains alive in the NCAA, with the potential for +62 if they win the next four and become National Champions. Wait, Jaybird is -81 points out of first place! Can Creighton in the CBI make up the difference? No. Jaybird is done. But Arizona will get the pleasure of trying to deny points to their following Sweet 16 bracket-buddies: Duke, UCONN, San Diego State.
Akaoni - 109 points out of first place, Akaoni stunned the field by putting TWO teams into the Sweet 16 with #8 seed Butler's upset over #1 seed Pitt and #10 seed Florida State's win over #2 seed Notre Dame. Does Akaoni have a chance? If one of these two teams wins it all (+60) and the other makes it to the Final Four (+25) he still sits 24 points behind. But wait! Northwestern is in the Elite 8 of the NIT, where a Title could net +25, and throw in Missouri State in the NIT where another +15 is possible... and Akaoni is technically still in the game!
Babblemur - Purdue's loss leaves Babs relying only on San Diego State in the NCAA (potental +62), Colorado in the NIT (potential +22) and Ohio in the CIT (potential +2 or +3 at best). At 41 points behind, Babblemur "technically" is still in it, but would need to see Mooseye lose at least 2 games in the first round of the sweet 16, and see a lot of other contender teams lose as well. Is it possible? Yes. Will it happen?
Contenders:
Mooseye - Mooseye has taken 3 of his 4 NCAA teams into the Sweet 16, and not just any 3 teams but #1 seed Kansas in the Southwest, #2 seed Florida in the Southeast, and #3 seed UCONN in the West. He enters the week with a 17 point lead, 3 strong teams in the NCAA, plus Wichita State and New Mexico alive in the NIT, not a bad pair of teams. At this point, Mooseye is in the driver's seat.
Gunz - Gunz was on top of the leaderboard for most of the season until a rocky trip through Championship Week knocked him off the top of the mountain. Now, with Duke, Wisconsin, and Virginia Commonwealth in the Sweet 16, Gunz is not only back in it, but in prime position to win it. At only 17 points behind Mooseye, Gunz and Mooseye don't have a single potential matchup until the Elite 8, at which point all six of their teams could be facing off. We got game here!
Jutdog - Jut lost Texas on Sunday but is sitting in third place, 21 points down, with two tough teams in the Sweet 16 with #2 seed North Carolina and #3 seed BYU. Every game counts now, but particularly BYU's next game against Mooseye's Florida, where a loss could end Jut's chances. North Carolina draws 11 seed Marquette but sees 1 seed Ohio State on the horizon. If it gets close we have to watch Kent State (potential +22) in the NIT and Rhode Island in the CBI.
McGrumps - Rising from the depths of the leader board, McGrumps has made a statement by putting three teams (Kentucky, Richmond, Marquette) into the Sweet 16, rising from 6th place to 4th just 35 points out of first place. Unfortunately it gets hard now, as Kentucky faces Ohio State, Marquette takes on North Carolina, and Richmond gets Kansas. McGrumps needs to get at least one of these teams into the Final Four to stay a contender.
Weekly Recap:
- Gunz +57 (9-4)
- Mooseye +53 (9-3)
- Jutdog +51 (9-4)
- McGrumps +49 (7-5)
- Akaoni +39 (7-4)
- Babs +30 (6-4)
- Jaybird +29 (5-5)
- SGII +28 (4-7)
- Mad Mader +26 (6-7)
- Slake B +25 (5-4)
- The CEO +17 (5-7)
- Musashisan +10 (4-2)
- Boaris +5 (1-10)
Standings after week 19:
- Current with all Mar 20 (Sunday) Games
- 1. Mooseye 470 (194-99)
- 2. Gunz 453 (185-104)
- 3. Jutdog 449 (198-93)
- 4. McGrumps 435 (204-92)
- 5. Babblemur 429 (191-97)
- 6. Boaris 412 (194-92)
- 7. Mad Mader 407 (185-103)
- 8. Jaybird 389 (187-102)
- 9. The CEO 361 (186-100)
- 10. Akaoni 361 (179-106)
- 11. Slake B 360 (167-115)
- 12. Some Guy in Illinois 352 (176-111)
- 13. Musashisan 254 (145-134)
40 comments:
By the way, check out Gunz' bracket on the ESPN group. He has 500 points, in 1,300th place, just 70 points behind the leader. He's looking like a contender! And of course we can all take credit for his fine picks due to this season long fiasco known as a "game".
babs
Yup, of course my non-money bracket looks great. I am doing well though....3 out of 4 regions were perfect (with the one not perfect one being a free pass for my champ-Kansas.)
Also, I'd like to revisit my prediction about the Big East. A bunch of decent but somewhat mediocre teams, as I suspected. I didn't know it was going to be this bad, though....the only teams to advance (UConn and Marquette) got there by beating someone from the Big East.
I predicted 8 wins, 11 losses. U Conn (2), Marquette (2), Notre Dame (1), Pitt (1), Syracuse (1), Cincy (1), West Virginia (1)....Total 9-9. Not bad considering most were predicting a Big East dominated tourney.
Here's what we need to happen in the NCAA tournament:
Thursday:
Butler (Aka) over Wisconsin (Gunz)
San Diego St (Babs) over UCONN (Moose)
Arizona (Jay) over Duke (Gunz)
BYU (Jut) over Florida (Moose)
Friday:
Ohio St (Slake) over Kentucky (McG)
Richmond (McG) over Kansas (Moose)
Marquette (McG) over UNC (Jut)
Florida St (Aka) over VCU
Not including NIT games, this would put the standings at:
Mooseye: 470 (no more NCAA)
Jut: 460 (BYU left)
McGrumps: 457 (Marquette and Richmond left)
Gunz: 453 (No more NCAA)
Babs: 440 (SD State left)
Jay: 400 (Arizona left)
Slake: 371 (Ohio State left)
Akaoni: 383 (Butler and FSU left)
Then in the Elite 8:
SD St (Babs) over Arizona (Jay)
Ohio St (Slake) over Marquette (McG)
Florida St (Aka) over Richmond (McG)
Butler (Aka) over BYU (Jut)
With these points, the standings are:
Mooseye: 470 (done)
Jut: 460 (done)
McGrumps: 457 (done)
Babs: 454 (1 in Final 4)
Gunz: 453 (done)
Boaris: 412 (done)
Akaoni: 411 (2 in final 4)
Mad Mader: 407 (done)
Jaybird: 400 (done)
Slake B: 385 (1 in final 4)
Then of course the Aztecs beat Ohio State to go to the National Championship game against Butler (Akaoni), giving the pair another 17 points each, and Babblemur is in first place, Akaoni, well, in 6th.
That's how I see it playing out, with Colorado winning the NIT for another 22 points of course.
babs
I did my big elaborate comment analysis on the upcoming games, and clicked PUBLISH and bam.. ERROR.
Fuckers.
Abbreviated:
BYU over Florida by 11
Wisco over Buter by 8
Florida St over VCU (toss up)
KU over Richmond by 10
(Florida St over KU by 2)
OSU likely over UK, but UK has a real chance to win this game
UNC over Marquette by 9
Arizona over Duke by 7
SDSU over UCONN by 11
Been trying to hype Marquette all season, but no one would listen. The pundits are virtually silent about them at this point. What do they know. My picks:
UNC can't squeak out another win. (unless Barnes gets hot and goes for 40).
OSU takes care of the Kentucky freshman with a barrage of threes.
Duke trounces Arizona, or at least controls the game throughout.
Walker wills UConn to victory over SDSU.
Richmond can't keep up with Kansas, loses by 20+.
Florida St.'s D finally shits down VCU.
Butler pulls out another close one.
Florida's two midget guards are better than BYU's one midget guard.
Final four: OSU, Duke, Kansas, Florida. SNORE.
Mooseye finally take the trophy to it's rightful place in Iowa (without winning the NCAA championship, which goes to Duke).
"VCU's throat".
You know, I think McGrumps just convinced me that San Diego State can beat UCONN.
babs
I have also trumpteted how dangerous Marquette could be in the tourney all year long, but unfortantely for them, the ride stops with their next game, UNC is too big inside, and Marquette does not have an answer for that. The key will be if Marshall can handle the pressure, if Marquette can turn him over, then it might be close, but I'm calling Carolina by 20 in this one, sorry boys.
Perhaps the most intriguing matchup will be Wisconsin and Butler. Butler is playing their best ball of the year, and let's face it, these two teams probably play with the highest basketball IQ out of anyone in the NCAA. Can Wisconsin (they have struggled with this during the season) guard the 3 pt line better than Pitt, that was Pitt's ultimate undoing, and will be key in this game. I'm calling Wisconsin, but in a very close battle that comes down to the last minute (which Butler has owned in every NCAA game they have played in the last two years).
Fl State, VCU, two teams inspired by no love, who will use that motivation to rise higher. I think VCU finally runs out of luck and struggles to score against VCU, Fl State by 11.
More later,
-The CEO
Kentucky eval:
They are 15-5 over their last 20 games, including two wins over Florida.
Those 5 losses were by a combined 11 points!
In otherwords, they were about 12 points shy of going 20-0, and moving to a season record of 32-3.
They have a top 25 offense, and a top 25 defense, which is impressive considering they were so young with no experience to start the year.
Obviously, Ohio St is the favorite, but I'm just saying that an almost 32-3 Kentucky team vs. a 33-2 Ohio St team is a pretty good match-up.
Next consider if you place any value on out-of-conference competition and the whole notion of different styles of play in different conferences.
If you do, then this is even more intriguing. Ohio State, other than playing Florida and Florida St back in Nov/Dec, has not played anyone ranked in the top 100 outside of the big ten. In fact, their non-conf schedule was ranked sub-200.
Ohio St is solid vs Big Ten ball - that tough, physical, often slower more deliberate type ball. We (and they) don't know how they are against a superior athletic team such as Kentucky. If anything, you could say this dimishes a bit of their "experience" edge.
As a result, Kentucky could get it done.
Really?
You going with that. Look, I'll give Kentucky this, last year their achilles heal was that they could not shoot the 3, period, and up until West Virginia, that wasn't exposed as teams tried to run with Kentucky. This years team is much more balanced.
I do like the way they handled the West Virginia game, and think the SEC overall is probably a "more athletic" conference than the big 10, but........
Ohio State is the ultimate team, with size inside, deadly shooters outside, Lightly and Buford and Craft can break anyone down on the dribble.
I think Kentucky can make it interesting, but their one common opponent, Florida, Ohio St went there and beat them down by like 30. Now that was early in the year, but still carries some serious weight.
Note: Kentucky lost there
I like upsets, and wanted to make the game sound interesting, although I actually would prefer fellow Big Ten squad Ohio St.
Kentucky beat Florida 2 times.
No one said they didn't beat them twice, once on neutral court, once at Kentucky, just saying when Ohio St faced the same challenge Kentucky did, going into Florida and playing on Florida's home court Ohio State won by 18 vs Kentucky's loss by 2
To be fair, Florida led Ohio State by three at the half. They only led Kentucky by two, then one, and lastly trailed by five. To be fair.
...and Colorado knocks out Kent State to be the first into the NIT final four (2 points, I'll take it, I need it)
babs
We'll have to explore conference points next year, as BYU leaves the Mountain West for the WCC. I'm not sure who else, if any, are leaving the MWC. Also, are any other conferences shifting enough to effect our point system?
Wasn't Utah moving to the Pac 10?
And Boise State is going somewhere more "BCSey", right?
All in all I think the point system we have now is pretty close to perfect, even if I lose.
NIT is getting down to the wire, and those competing at the top could use these bonus points. Colorado is already in the NIT final 4, tonight the other three are determined.
Musashisan has a guarantee as Alabama plays Miami.
Northwestern is a required win for Akaoni, if the CEO's Washington State beats them, Akaoni is officially out of contention.
Mooseye could pad his numbers with Wichita State, playing against Mad Mader's last team in, Charleston.
These 3 games are all worth +2, winning the Semis are +4, winning the NIT is +7.
babs
I don't think much can be gleaned from the Florida v. Ohio State v. Kentucky analysis. Ohio State beat Florida by 18 in November. Kentucky beat Florida by 16 in March. Neutral court, blah blah blah. Ohio State has trounced two teams in the tournament, but their body of work isn't that great. They played no one non-conference (besides Florida), and almost lost games to Iowa, Michigan, Northwestern (twice), etc. When they did play tough opponents (Wisconsin, Purdue) they split those games. If they get hot, they can blow anyone out, because of their 3-point shooters. But Kentucky can get hot, too. I think Ohio State goes on a couple of runs and wins, but I think the media's love-fest with Ohio State is overblown.
An example from CBS Sports:
"1. Ohio State’s quest for dominance: College basketball has been decidedly mediocre as a whole this season, with no real difference between most of the teams in the top 25. But all year, Ohio State has seemed to be on a different plane. Its two losses during the regular season were both on the road, against ranked teams in the Top 15. And now in the tournament, as Kansas, Duke, North Carolina, etc have struggled at times in their games, the Buckeyes have rolled and looked absolutely dominant. Now however they are rewarded only with the two winningest programs in college basketball history, Kentucky and North Carolina. Win those two in a convincing manner and they will be cutting the nets down in Houston."
Dumb. Notice that while North Carolina "has struggled," they apparently can just cruise through Marquette, who did not struggle against a good Xavier team in the first round.
Where has all the idol blogging gone?
Yeah no kidding.
I thought Scotty's song sounded like the theme song to Urban Cowboy but sucky.
Pia is a diva.
Casey really sucks, people have to figure that out soon. I mean seriously, how many good songs (Screamin J Hawkins, Nirvana, etc,) does he have to butcher before people say "STOP RUINING GOOD SONGS!"
The black guy was probably the best of the bunch (after Pia of course) which is something because he usually reminds me of a retard on the wrong meds.
Finally, if the voting is in any way based on "who you would fuck" then Haley should win. (Unless you are gay, then vote for Rod Stewart guy.)
This one's for you, McGrumps.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2AzEY6ZqkuE
With the new judges Idol has become completely unwatchable. I will begin Dancing With the Stars blogging when I have a minute to myself when the baby isn't fussing.
Casie believes that Hines Ward can go all the way.
-Mooseye
Stop the garbage talk, no one cares about Idol or Dancing with the stars, let's talk about the end of the season,and success of the soon to be defunct Mountain West, let's talk about Butler again playing up to the level and slightly beyond of it's competition, let's talk about Duke getting a bigger challenge out of Arizona than expected,
That Wichita St is finally realizing it's potential, Washington St is playing consistent, that Creighton will play Oregon (where their coach went) at Creighton, that should be fun
Now that we're all clear let the hoops talk commence
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dVPaUvNOQPw&feature=related
Hmmmm, I guess that Butler pick was worth it after all...too bad the rest of my team stunk.
And Gunz dies!
Go UNC go UNC go UNC
oh yeah, VCU. Shit.
Go Florida St. Go Akaoni. Go Florida St.
oh no. McGrumpsters.
Go Ohio St. Go Slakedog. Go Ohio St.
Even though I picked Duke to win it all in many of my brackets, I can't say I didn't enjoy watching them get thoroughly humiliated in the second half. We'll see how the other three evil, cheating blue teams do tonight.
Well, my season all came crashing down in a hurry last night. Pretty much sucked. But now that I don't have to root for my becoming somewhat begrudging favorite team (Wisconsin) and my relunctant partner (Duke)...at least I can just enjoy the games. Crash and burn.
Go VCU and Marquette. Meet in the final, let's get this thing crazy.
Gunz
So, if Kansas, UConn and Florida all get to the final four, it's over, right, even if Kentucky or UNC manage to win it all?
( i o w a )
I'm going for 2nd.
Well, all I have left is Colorado in the NIT, which I anticipate winning, and second place is out of reach for me.
It was fun while it lasted. I guess I better start campaigning for city council now, april 5 election and all.
Lets see if Iowa can take the trophy now - Mooseye, McGrumps - go go go
babs
Preparing for disappointment over the next couple hours.
This is just terrible. I can't watch this. I'm going to get a drink.
So, talent has been kicking ass tonight. I guess that means UK wind by 20.
Well shit boys, I think that UCONN win might have put Mooseye out ahead too far to overcome. I haven't done the math or anything but it is looking ugly (like Jutdog ugly last year...)
babs
It most certainly is now a battle for #2. Go UNC!
VCU!!!!!
Sets up the mid major bracket buster of all time:
#11 VCU vs #8 Butler
Unbelievable!
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