Before you skip this though, you have until Sunday to submit your own predictions of what you think the final finish will be. Click here to submit your ballot in our "coaches poll".
Now my predictions (and contrary to what Jut thinks, I'm more right than wrong).
1. Gunz - This will be a close race between Gunz and Jaybird, and in a way it comes down to which one of these two are more likely to put a team in the National Championship game against Michigan State, and I think Duke is more likely to be that team. Gunz' squad is well anchored behind Duke with Georgetown and Wisconsin who should rake in big points. Oklahoma State is going to be good for 40 points, and VCU will surprise Jut and win the Colonial. Stanford has a lot of opportunities for points in the PAC 10, all the PAC 10 teams do, but only 3 will go dancing (it won't be Stanford). Bradley is the only drag on this squad.
2. Jaybird - Jaybird has a monster squad though. It may be too powerful to defeat, even if he fails to reach the National Championship game (like Jut last year). Pitt, Temple, Arizona and Mississippi State is the best 1-4 on the field. Morgan State, UTEP and Georgia Tech are all going to be good for 35-45 points each, and Creighton won't hurt him. I predict we'll be hating Jaybird most of the season.
3. Boaris - he knows what he's doing, he was in the race all year last year, and might have pulled it off if it hadn't have been for Northern Iowa knocking off Kansas in the second round of the tournament. This year it will be Kansas State that has to carry him, and they have that potential. Tennessee is critical, if they implode Boaris will be in trouble. Princeton, Louisville, UNLV and Utah State are all strong medium teams, UAB has potential in a topsy turvey Conference USA, and Loyola Marymount has some good point opportunities.
4. Mooseye - league rookie Mooseye put together a solid group that will be competitive throughout. Kansas, Florida, and Wichita State are going to be huge point winners. New Mexico and UCONN also have a lot of potential. Western Kentucky will lose to North Texas though, Charlotte will be passed over in the A-10, and Wake will pick up some cheap points in the ACC but see nothing but NIT in the end.
5. Akaoni - He hates his squad I'm sure, but I'd take it over mine any day. #6 Villanova and #17 Butler will be leaders, and Florida State will bring in solid points in the ACC. Northwestern better make the NCAA Tourney, but the rest of his teams need to win their conferences or at least kick a lot of ass. Dayton could turn in more points than Northwestern given the thick A-10 this year. If he gets three of these guys in the Sweet 16 he'll be fighting to the end.
6. McGrumps - McGrumps could have had better prospects if not for a lost player at Memphis, but McGrumps probably has the most parity among his teams from top to bottom. Quinnipiac, maybe his worst team, will bring in 25 points and win the NEC, Oakland will do even better in the Summit, can't complain about that. St. Mary's, Memphis, and Richmond are a beatiful trinity of mid-majors. The questions are whether Kentucky turns it on, and how many points Marquette and Boston College scoop up.
7. Musashisan - Musashisan has the advantage of having Michigan State, which will balance the drag that he will get from Northern Iowa and Long Beach State. Baylor is going to rack up points, and his other Majors (Arizona State, Alabama, Miami) will be good for 25-35 each. It all comes down to Iowa, who has no where to go but up. The irony is that Michigan State is my favorite to win the National Championship, but unless 2 or 3 other teams on this squad step up and become top tier teams it won't be enough.
8. Slake B - League Rookie Slake B has some excellent teams and some so-so teams. Ohio State has Final 4 potential. West Virginia and Xavier have Sweet 16 potential. The rest just need to earn a lot of points, and for some of them that won't be easy. Wright State comes with a curse, they burn any player that picks them.
9. Some Guy in Illinois - A vastly improved squad over last year, the major problem is the lack of a Final 4 contender unless Illinois rises out of the Big 10 to shock the prognosticators. Illinois and Washington will bring in big points, NC State and Ole Miss will bring in pretty good points, and Murray State is a solid pick. If Tulsa, George Mason and New Mexico State step up and dominate their tough respective mid-major conferences SGII could rise much higher than this.
10. Mad Mader - I like two of Mad Mader's teams a lot, Syracuse is a favorite as is North Texas. Mad Mader doubled down in the Big East with Syracuse and Notre Dame, both good for 50 points each, plus has players in the ACC (VA Tech), Pac 10 (UCLA), Big 12 (Texas A&M) and the Big 10 (Penn State), a version of the "Akaoni Method" of staying with the Majors. If 5 of those 6 turn out strong, Mad Mader will be competitive, but other than Syracuse and Virginia Tech I can't see strong post season opportunities (Maybe UCLA in the NIT...). St. Louis is going to tank in the A-10 as well, sorry.
11. Babblemur - Woo hoo! Not last! But bottom 3, as predicted by Jaybird. Losing Hummel hurt, bumping Purdue down a tier. Majors Georgia, St. John's, and Colorado all pretty much start off on the bubble, and USC is just a novelty pick. Any success here will have to rest on San Diego State winning the MWC, which is no guarantee, and Ohio having a monster year in the MAC. But, no real duds here, Maine will shock you.
12. The CEO - At first I really liked The CEO's squads, even thought they were Top 3 potential, but you know, they just don't have it. Here's why: 1. Three minors - Santa Barbara, Wofford, and Fairfield, good for padding but won't go past the first round of the NCAA if they even get in. 2. Gonzaga is the best he's got, and Gonzaga is great, don't get me wrong, but when is the last time they made it into the second week of the NCAA tournament? The gem of this squad is Missouri, who I DO think can make the Sweet 16 if not further. Minnesota, Washington State and Vanderbilt will be good point producers but not stellar in the end. Sorry buddy.
13. Jutdog - WHAAAT? That's right, I think he's got a squad of teams he likes but they are going to keep him in the basement. Here's why: Only three Major conference teams, although North Carolina and Texas could really shine as second place finishers in their conferences, and Seton Hall could bring in some points, that's it for that major conference minimum wage of 30-40 points. The rest of his teams are all gambles that they win their mid-major and minor conferences and score an upset in the NCAA Tourney. BYU - great team. 50-50 shot to win their conference, 50-50 shot to win the MWC tournament. 50-50 shot to score a round one upset. Weber State, Old Dominion, Rhode Island, Detroit - all four of them need to win their conferences and tourneys to give Jut the points he needs from them. 2 of them probably will, the other two have a steeper hill to climb. So I'm predicting terrible disaster for Jut this year, where his hope in the end will be the possibility of finishing 11th, ahead of me.There you are! Suck it up, homeys!
14 comments:
I more or less agree with most of this analysis. Gunz looks to be solid across the board with 3 teams that can contend for their conference championship, 3 big confrence sleepers and VCU (a team which I coveted). I think they're head and shoulders above the rest.
Babs is correct that I'm dissapointed with my team this year. I made some broad strategic decisions early which created a cascade effect across my team. In the end I probably won't win enough conferences to compete for the title. 4th-5th is just about right.
good posting!
I know I'm so smart.
You know that is just craziness. Withita St a HUGE point winner? Oklahoma St just reached 40 pts last year, and lost their all-american - 35 is a stretch. Mooseye is really going to have a hard time finishing in the top half of the league. The list goes on and on.
I fear this may be the worst year of the Iowans, with probably only one of the 4 finishing in the top 5 of the league.
And crazier than crazy - Babs finishing higher than Jutdog?? That is as likely as Babs giving up the boose!
Strategic note: Look at how shitty bad majors did last year. While your post is extremely high on the number of majors a player selects - and you claim they are worth a min of 30-40 - check out the impressive point totals for Arkansas, Penn State, UCLA, Boston College, Arizona, Alabama, Oregon State, Michigan, and Oklahoma.
Further, a decent season from a good mid major such as Old Dominion pulled in 51 pts last year: Only 2 pts less than Pitt, and more pts than V-Tech, Vandy, Florida, Miss St, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Missouri, and Clemson.
In fact, OD was 2nd-place-finisher-Gunz's third highest point scorer behind Wisconsin and Duke.
Now, while Babs is in love with Akaoni's strategy last year of taking only majors, it must be noted that Akaoni somehow snagged great majors throughout the entire draft, except for a drastically under-performing South Carolina.
So, with the clarification that Babs is a fuckin idiot who has failed to ever acheive much in his own challenge (including miraculously somehow finishing the first year's competition with a negative point total), we'll conclude that whosoever should believe that this was a fine posting must also then be a douche.
Northern Iowa had over 70 points last year, wichita st is good for at least 50. a good mix of major and mids is best and Jut is unbalanced. Not to toot my horn but I finished #4 last year and #2 the year before. Lost by one point I think. - babs
Someone either (a) takes themselves very seriously, or (b) is too dim to understand the difference between clever trash talk and sophomoric, mean-spirited ranting.
i agree - isn't babs an idiot..
let me add:
Wofford last year (note, they lost one guy who played sparingly):
Lost to Pitts to open the season at Pitts by 4
Beat Georgia by 3
Lost to Illinois at Illinois by 14
Lost at Michigan State by 12
Beat South Carolina by 7
Lost to Wisconsin in the NCAA by 4
So, are they a crappy pick? We'll find out with games at Clemson, Xavier, South Carolina, VCU, they'll outscore some of those "major" teams that people took, really, every team in the ACC but 1? What kind of logic is that? Some solid picks for the 20 pts you'll get.
-The CEO
I'll also comment I had Northern Iowa the last two year, not many teams return their top 9 scorers and 4 senior starers, something Northern Iowa did from a squad that won the league the year before. They were a great team, held up strong, picked up some good head to head wins, and played the best game of their year against Kansas. I loved it, they were a great team, but they lose that game 8 out of every 10, but they would not lose that day, not the way they played. Yes, there is a Cinderella or two every year, Davidson was a huge, Northern Iowa and Butler were huge last year. This year's candidates: Gonzaga, Wichita St or Missouri St, Old Dominion, San Diego St....return a ton of talent, brought in some new players, and were very competitive last year, let's see who emerges.....
-The CEO
Lastly, Akaoni got my pick of the year for getting Baylor in I believe the second to last round last year, what a steal!!!!!!
-The CEO
thought I was done, but one last post, I gotta love the AP journalist, who with his one vote, voted for Wofford, allowing them to crack the also getting votes section of the first release of AP rankings, thanks dude, you must know something Babs doesn't :o),
-The CEO
dude I said good for padding, that ain't a knock. But 3 minors is 1-2 too many...
when do we get the results of the surveymonkey ratings?
so trying to follow your logic, are you saying that in round 7, I would have been better off taking Penn State, Boston College, Oregon, or USC vs a Santa Barbara team that is picked to win their conf, has head to heads against Oregon, Long Beach St, and Loyola Marymount (picked earlier in that round), and a team they beat at Loyola last year? Hmmm, I'll go out on a limb and say that UC Santa Barbara outscores every major picked in Rounds 7 and 8. I don't call that padding, I call it analytical analysis.
-The CEO
no I just think your teams suck just a little more than mine.
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