Approaching the final wire, who still has a shot at this?
At this point it may be down to 3 players: Akaoni, Boaris, and Jutdog. These three have a huge advantage going into the Sweet 16, and with just 20 points separating the three it is safe to say that they are neck and neck.
But don't count out yet those clinging to NCAA championship hopes: Babblemur, Gunz, Jaybird, The CEO and NotaTurtle. At this point I claim that these five are longshots but technically still in it.
The Leaders
Akaoni
Akaoni built a strong lead early this season and held it almost all the way through, but now he must pull off the big finish to claim the title. Syracuse is key to his success, and he may need them to win it all depending on what happens with Boaris and Jutdog's teams. Having Baylor and Washington in the Sweet 16 helps as both back ups in case Syracuse gets stunned by Butler or the following game. Baylor should pick up the win over St. Mary's, but Washington has a tough game against a very good West Virginia. I would put Akaoni's odds at 1:4 now, with a few extra points possible from Virginia Tech in the NIT and Charleston good for a point or two in the CBI.
Boaris
Boaris' stock went way down with Kansas on Saturday. His back up, Ohio State, are no slouches though, consider that they won the Big 10 regular season, the Big 10 Tournament, ranked 5th in the nation, and are now the top seed in the Midwest Bracket. The Buckeyes do not have an easy road to the Final Four though, facing a critical game with Tennessee on Friday and if they win, either Michigan State or Northern Iowa. St. Mary's, on the other hand, is a long shot against Baylor, and if they win, they face either Duke or Purdue. Louisiana Tech in the CIT is only good for a few points at best. Boaris' Championship hopes depend on Ohio State getting not only to the Final Four but the championship game. I would put his odds at 1:8.
Jutdog
Somehow this bastard managed to get 4 teams in the Sweet 16, in 3 of the 4 brackets to boot. This makes Jutdog a strong contender to win the championship based on numbers alone. His teams are no pushovers though, and if he makes enough noise this week he may not even need to win the championship. Kansas State has good odds against Xavier, and will likely face off with Syracuse on Saturday. Tennessee can match up with Ohio State and knock Boaris out with a win on Thursday. Conference underdogs Cornell are going to be everyone's favorite against Kentucky, but West Virginia is likely Jut's best bet to reach the Final Four. They face Akaoni's Washington on Thursday, and unless Cornell got lucky they have their toughest contest to date with Kentucky on Saturday. I put Jutdog at 1:4 odds to win the Babbleball championship at this point.
The Long Shots
Gunz
Gunz is 8 points below Babs, but in much better shape, because he has Duke instead of Butler, and Rhode Island instead of UAB. Gunz needs Rhode Island to roll some more games in the NIT, but like Babs, he needs Duke in the Final Four, in the Championship game, and likely needs them to win it all. Duke faces a tough Purdue on Friday, and if they win they take on either Boaris' St. Mary's or Akaoni's Baylor. Like Babs, Gunz needs The CEO to get into the Final Four out of the Midwest Region, and Jaybird's Kentucky from the East, again to deny the Top 3 players more points. Gunz should be rooting for Phunmunki's Xavier to mess things up for Jut and Akaoni as well in the West. Gunz has the benefit of Duke being a strong choice to win the National Championship, which greatly helps his cause, but he needs Akaoni, Boaris and Jut to lose some big games along the way. Odds for Gunz: 1:12
Jaybird
Same situation for Jaybird, but it is Kentucky that holds the cards for reigning Babbleball Champ Jaybird. Kentucky is a damn good team to have holding the cards however, #1 seed for good reason, and West Virginia is about the only real challenge to keep them out of the Final Four. With Kansas out, Kentucky has become that much closer to sailing in for a National Championship. Jaybird also will pick up needed points along the way from Nevada and Dayton in the NIT, but its all about Kentucky winning and Boaris, Akaoni and Jut losing big games. Odds for Jaybird: 1:16
Babblemur
The CEO put the dagger in Babblemur's chances when Michigan State took down Maryland. Left now with Butler in the Sweet 16, and UAB in the NIT, it doesn't look good for Babs. If UAB were to somehow win the NIT, that's a total of about 20-25 points. But to win the Babbleball championship Butler is going to have to go all the way, National Champions. He would have to destroy Akaoni's dreams by knocking off Syracuse on Thursday, defeat Jut's Kansas State on Saturday, and still hope to meet up with one of The CEO's teams in the Final Four, Gunz's Duke, and Jaybird's Kentucky, just to stop Boaris, Akaoni, and Jut from picking up more points. Odds for Babblemur: 1:50
The CEO
The good news is two teams in the Sweet 16. The bad news is they play each other on Friday. The good news is The CEO will have one team for sure in the Elite 8, and their opponent will either be #2 seed Ohio State (Boaris) or #6 seed Tennessee (Jutdog). It goes without saying that The CEO needs to put either Northern Iowa or Michigan State in the Final Four. They also need to see Boaris, Jutdog, and Akaoni kept out of the Final Four. And if one gets in, The CEO needs to beat them. Cincinnati in the NIT could bring critical points to keep the CEO competitive, Pacific is good for 1-3 points at best in the CIT. Odds for The CEO: 1:75
NotaTurtle
Purdue and UCONN remain for the one who is not a turtle. UCONN may be favorites to win the NIT for 25 points when it is all said and done, and if Purdue wins the National Championship that is another 68 points. Can 93 points win it for NAT? He's 78 points down... He needs a perfect storm. He needs: 1. Win the NIT, 2. Purdue to win the National Championship, AND: 3. Butler over Akaoni's Syracuse, AND 4. Xavier over Jut's K-State, AND 5. Kentucky in the Final Four, AND 6. St. Mary's over Akaoni's Baylor OR West Virginia over over Akaoni's Washington. So yes, it is possible, NotaTurtle, but highly improbable. Odds for NotaTurtle: 1:200.
Out
Phunmunki - down to Xavier in the sweet 16. If the X were to win the National Championship, they would pick up 68 points along the way. Unfortunately she is 130 points out from first place right now. She's out.
Some Guy in Illinois - With two teams in the NIT and one in the CIT, the best he can do for the remainder of the season is 39 points, a far cry from the 160 he needs to vie for the championship. He's out.
31 comments:
Hope is short lived apparently. UCONN's loss tonight to Virginia Tech in the NIT eliminates any possibility of NotaTurtle winning the whole she-bang. Not that he can't make a mess with Purdue though on his way out...
You know, I was dissapointed that Illinois and Va. Tech missed the dance, but now I'm not so sure that the NIT might be better from a point perspective. Both have advanced to the quarter finals they are both in line to contribute a bunch more points than they would have in a one-and-done NCAA tourney scenerio. Admittedly, they both have some tough games ahead of them, but they're on pace to meet in the NIT finals which could give me a bit more breathing room if things get tough in the NCAA tourney.
I think this year's NIT lineup was highly impressive, and should reward folks for doing well. The NCAA tends to have a few weak links due to conf tourney winners, while the NIT snagged up all of these excellent squads that just couldn't fit into the atlarge category.
I thought the same with Minnesota too. However, you can't pass on the potential to win a game or two in the NCAA, which is work good points.
~J
Well we don't have to follow the CBI anymore, Akaoni's Charleston got the boot.
Two teams still in the CIT though: CEO's Pacific and Some Guy In Illinois' Creighton.
Cincinnati's loss on Monday hurt CEO more than I thought. Michigan St/UNI can score up to 66 points, Pacific in the CIT can pick up 4 more, and that's it. Being 74 points down with 70 points available eliminates The CEO from winning (but not from a stronger finish than 7th...)
I met my quota last round, so again I'll set it modestly - 2 teams advance, with an unlikely hope that 3 move on. I'm very interested to see how Cornell does against Kentucky - obviously Kentucky is far more athletic, quick, and sized. We'll see how this matches up against execution, experience, and tremendous shooting.
~ J
Cornell has shot their wad. Kentucky will destroy them.
Northern Iowa, on the other hand, has a decent chance of making the final four! Which would be crazy.
Go UNI Go!!
Some Guy In Illinois just put two teams in the NIT Final Four with North Carolina knocking off my UAB and Ole Miss hitting Texas Tech. That's points, man. Points for SGII. No one else got any today.
If I win both my games today it will be an all Akaoni-SGII NIT!
I'll take small victories where I can! 3 teams still playin'
SGII
Poo,
West Virginia's point guard breaks foot, out for rest of season, that hurts the likelihood of Kentucky not reaching the final four, Jaybird picking up a little love
Well, he's sort of their back up point guard turned starter when the Mazulo guy went out with a shoulder injury - the Muzaolu guy is now playing again, so they should be fine.
Well that sucked. Va. Tech let a winnable game get away from them and Illinois went with one of their patented "phone it in" games. Oh well, it's down to 3 for me.
Good to see Aka get knocked down just a bit (cut off a potential 20 pts or so).
BIG day today. 4 games, of which I am in 3 of them. Potential 36 pts. I expect to get 24 of them. Nope, I expect to get all 36 to take the lead. Cornell is going to shoot 75%.
Babs, I will try very hard to get Butler to Win. Let's go buddy!
I won't be able to update yesterday's NIT and CIT games for a while, I'm in a conferency type thing all day.
already done my man
What were y'all smokin' when you filled out your ESPN brackets? How is it possible that I am the only one with Kentucky winning?
To freshmen (albeit talented) were the determining factor. That and the fact that I basically made permutations on a couple of themes for my picks this year instead of going all over the board...except for the costanza bracket.
Somehow I wrote "to" when I meant to write "two"...and I criticize people for there, they're, their...
As we prepare for the big evening, some deep thoughts, by the CEO:
Wow, any Villanova owner (in a babs like league) or bracket should really be upset with Scottie Reynolds or at least the press. You see, shortly after tip, it leaked that Scottie had been benched for some conduct issues, it didn't affect him though, did it, he played without passion and pretty much missed every shot he took outside of freethrow, nice job Scottie. Why.......
Because let's jump to a different but related topic, Kansas. If they were really the real NCAA #1 seed, wow, Bill Self must have done something to irrate the selection committe. Nova basically had to beat Duke in the great 8, a rematch of last year's trouncing where one could argue neither team had improved, but Kansas, they would have to play through potentially Maryland or Michigan State (who was better than Purdue once Hummel went down), Georgetown, Giant Slayer Tennessee who had already beat them once this year, Ohio State, and senior laden Northern Iowa, not exactly what I'd call a cakewalk....
So going back to where I started, if Scottie had played with Fahroukmakesh like passion, and had the guts to stroke a three with 20 seconds on the clock all alone on the press break, well, maybe our brackets wouldn't look so bad and whoever owned Nova would still be in the running.
Either way, here are my predictions for this evening:
K State takes it to Xavier, Syracuse takes it to Butler, Kentucky blows out Cornell, and sadly, W Virginia can't overcome the loss of it's point guard (yes, they have Mazzula and his 2.2 pts and 2.1 assists per game, but they lost almost 10 and 5, that is big gap to fill) and Washington continues to fulfill the potential it had coming into this year but never achieved (talk about peaking at the right time)
-The CEO
last week, no one even knew west virginia had a point guard. Everyone thought it was 2 on 5, ebanks and butler vs everyone. i hope you're wrong
BUTLER!
I am glad I'm wrong, somehow losing Nova and Kansas early from my final four, I sit tied for 6th, and with a K state win, move into 3rd and the money, thank you Butler, wow, if Cornell pulled this off, huge!!!!
-The CEO
Well that sucked. A great season flushed down the toilet overnight. I don't think Baylor's going to pull this one out for me. On the plus side, I guess a 3 months of positive feelings about my team outweigh the dismal couple of weeks that will be the outcome of last night's unravling.
Good luck to everyone left in the hunt! I'm all in for UNI at this point.
Well the odds sure shifted after last night, that's for sure. Jut's in the drivers seat, and if Tennessee wins tonight he virtually eliminates Boaris and could be unstoppable.
If Tenn goes down though, and Baylor survives St. Mary's, we'll have:
Akaoni: Baylor vs. Gunz: Duke
Buaris: Ohio State vs. The CEO: Michigan St/UNI
Babblemur: Butler vs. Jutdog: Kansas St
Jaybird: Kentucky vs. Jutdog: West Virginia
Which will make for a VERY exciting weekend of elimination!
Jut looking to make another strong finish. Having never finished lower that 3rd, Jut may take an unprecedented second hall of fame award.
But on a more serious note, this is very interesting: no one has it wrapped up. Even Aka's dismal flutter at the end hasn't cost him a shot.
CEO: Most he can snag is 451 plus whatever Pacific can muster. He's out, but can do significant damage to Boaris/Jut in the elite 8.
Turtle: Purdue winning the tourney brings him up to 445 or so. Out, but can do everyone a favor and take Duke out.
Gunz: Has a lot in common with Jaybird - One NCAA and NIT team left, and they are virtually tied for fifth. Rhode Island could snag another 17, combined with Duke winning three more games puts him at 472. Duke winning it all puts him at 495. This would be hard to beat unless one of the top 3 players snagged 3+ wins.
Jaybird: Could score another 17 in the NIT with Dayton, bringing him up to 429. If Kentucky wins two more games, that's 34 pts, putting him at 463. If Kentucky wins, he's at 486. This is a number that is beatable others if they win 2+ additional games.
Babs: Butler ended up being an amazing pick for this pig. It is highly unlikely that Butler can win it all. But let's be optimistic and say Butler wins 2 more games. Babs is up to 455. Below Jut and Aka if these two lose all future games. He's out.
The top 3 are a little more complex than I have time for now.
~ Jut
So I was only half watching, but did Ohio St. just get completely hosed?
Yep. Boaris is dead.
I mean, Turner was mugged with time on the clock, no?
common now.. if I go up for a shot, and use my left arm to reach out and hit the defender that is attempting to disrupt my shot, no professional ref anywhere in the world would call that a foul. That was good defense.
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